DE · pick 16 — first ever defensive end at #16 (1972)

DE·pick 16

FIRST DE EVER DRAFTED AT #16

Herb Orvis

Drafted by DET · Colorado

1972

DEs drafted at #16 in NFL history

most recent: Brian Burns (CAR, 2019)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1971, the model gave a defensive end at #16 a 8.8% chance in 1972.

Defensive end at #16, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 22.9% · 2027 model: 7.2%

Surrounding picks · 1972 draft

#11QBJerry TaggeGB
#12SCraig ClemonsCHI
#13RBFranco HarrisPIT
#14QBJohn ReavesPHI
#15SClarence EllisATL
#17CBEldridge SmallNYG
#18SThom DardenCLE
#19WRTerry BeasleySF
#20LBMike TaylorNYJ
#21WRMike SianiLV

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 9 picks

2019Brian BurnsCAR — GM Marty Hurney · Florida St.
2012Quinton CoplesNYJ — GM Mike Tannenbaum · North Carolina
2011Ryan KerriganWAS — GM Bruce Allen · Purdue
2010Derrick MorganTEN — GM Mike Reinfeldt · Georgia Tech
1999Jevon KearseTEN — GM Floyd Reese · Florida
1996Duane ClemonsMIN — GM Frank Gilliam · California
1995Hugh DouglasNYJ — GM Steve Gutman / Pat Kirwan · Central State (OH)
1988Eric KumerowMIA — GM Don Shula · Ohio St.
1987John BosaMIA — GM Don Shula · Boston Col.

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