DE · pick 12 — first ever defensive end at #12 (1984)

DE·pick 12

FIRST DE EVER DRAFTED AT #12

Alphonso Carreker

Drafted by GB — GM Forrest Gregg · Florida St.

1984

DEs drafted at #12 in NFL history

most recent: Shaun Ellis (NYJ, 2000)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1983, the model gave a defensive end at #12 a 11.2% chance in 1984.

Defensive end at #12, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 23.0% · 2027 model: 6.3%

Surrounding picks · 1984 draft

#7LBRicky HunleyCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#8CBLeonard ColemanIND — GM Jim Irsay/staff
#9DERick BryanATL — GM Tom Braatz
#10CBRussell CarterNYJ — GM Jim Kensil
#11LBWilber MarshallCHI — GM Jerry Vainisi
#13DTKeith MillardMIN — GM Mike Lynn
#14LBJackie ShippMIA — GM Don Shula
#15DERon FaurotNYJ — GM Jim Kensil
#16DTPete KochCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#17WRClyde DuncanARI — GM Bill Bidwill

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2000Shaun EllisNYJ — GM Dick Haley · Tennessee
1996Regan UpshawTB — GM Rich McKay · California
1992Marco ColemanMIA — GM Don Shula · Georgia Tech
1989Trace ArmstrongCHI — GM Bill Tobin · Florida

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