Jets, 2022. Followed by Devon Witherspoon at #5 (Seahawks, 2023). Top-5 corners are once-a-generation: Mike Haynes #5 (Patriots, 1976), Deion Sanders (Falcons, 1989), Jalen Ramsey #5 (Jaguars, 2016), Denzel Ward #4 (Browns, 2018). The 2022 draft produced both Gardner and Stingley Jr. (#3) on the same night, then Witherspoon a year later — the run reset a ceiling the position rarely tests.
How rare was this draftigami?
Trained on every pick through 2017, the model gave a cornerback at #4 a 8.1% chance in 2018.
Cornerback at #4, year by year
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 19.1% · 2027 model: 10.1%
Surrounding picks · 2018 draft
#1QBBaker MayfieldCLE — GM John Dorsey
#2RBSaquon BarkleyNYG — GM Dave Gettleman
#3QBSam DarnoldNYJ — GM Mike Maccagnan
#5DEBradley ChubbDEN — GM John Elway
#6OGQuenton NelsonIND — GM Chris Ballard
#7QBJosh AllenBUF — GM Brandon Beane
#8LBRoquan SmithCHI — GM Ryan Pace
#9OTMike McGlincheySF — GM John Lynch
Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick
2022Sauce GardnerNYJ — GM Joe Douglas · Cincinnati