C·pick 96
1967–present, every common draft.
Picks 96–104 are usually round-3 compensatory picks awarded to teams that lost free agents — a post-1994 invention. Pre-94 these were just regular round-3 / round-4 slots, no comp formula attached. Either era, the back of round 3 is where teams cash in on offensive linemen who slipped on day two: value, depth, future starters.
The model gives a 1.38% chance this becomes a draftigami in the 2027 draft.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 5.8% · 2027 model: 1.3%