Bill Tobin
CHI · IND · Composite skill θ = -0.19 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.86 to +0.49
Composite θ
-0.19
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.86–+0.49
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
29%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Bad
directional only
Evidence: 87 mapped picks across 11 draft classes, 1987–1997 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.11
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1987–1993CHIDirector Pro Personnel then de facto GM; pre-IND tenure
- 1994–1997INDDirector of Football Operations; pre-Polian
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #19 | Marvin Harrison | OFF | +13.19 |
| 1997 | #19 | Tarik Glenn | OFF | +6.16 |
| 1988 | #161 | Lemuel Stinson | DEF | +2.11 |
| 1989 | #11 | Donnell Woolford | DEF | +2.01 |
| 1995 | #48 | Ken Dilger | OFF | +1.83 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #78 | Chris Gardocki | ST | -5.61 |
| 1989 | #12 | Trace Armstrong | DEF | -4.29 |
| 1995 | #79 | Zack Crockett | OFF | -3.77 |
| 1997 | #86 | Bertrand Berry | DEF | -3.25 |
| 1994 | #2 | Marshall Faulk | OFF | -2.97 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 87 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #19 | Marvin Harrison | OFF | +1.97 | +2.93 | — | +4.61 | — | +6.98 | +5.27 | +13.19 |
| 1997 | #19 | Tarik Glenn | OFF | +1.78 | +2.41 | — | +2.94 | — | +2.64 | -0.41 | +6.16 |
| 1988 | #161 | Lemuel Stinson | DEF | +1.24 | +1.09 | — | +0.95 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +2.11 |
| 1989 | #11 | Donnell Woolford | DEF | +0.86 | +1.41 | — | +0.79 | — | +0.57 | -0.38 | +2.01 |
| 1995 | #48 | Ken Dilger | OFF | +0.83 | +1.53 | — | +0.38 | — | +0.72 | -0.19 | +1.83 |
| 1997 | #48 | Adam Meadows | OFF | +0.72 | +1.11 | — | +1.07 | — | -0.36 | -0.23 | +1.69 |
| 1993 | #97 | Todd Perry | OFF | +1.03 | +1.18 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.29 | -0.19 | +1.30 |
| 1988 | #27 | Wendell Davis | OFF | +0.89 | +0.66 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | +1.23 |
| 1991 | #49 | Chris Zorich | DEF | +0.79 | +0.58 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.22 |
| 1993 | #35 | Carl Simpson | DEF | +0.81 | +0.62 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.17 |
| 1990 | #6 | Mark Carrier | DEF | +0.33 | +0.70 | — | +0.22 | — | +1.97 | -1.13 | +1.15 |
| 1989 | #95 | Markus Paul | DEF | +1.11 | +0.18 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.01 |
| 1987 | #54 | Ron Morris | OFF | +0.66 | +0.45 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.81 |
| 1989 | #36 | John Roper | DEF | +0.60 | +0.43 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.77 |
| 1988 | #23 | Brad Muster | OFF | +0.48 | +0.59 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.24 | -0.12 | +0.68 |
| 1989 | #130 | Mark Green | OFF | +0.78 | +0.07 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 1990 | #144 | John Mangum | DEF | +1.28 | -0.13 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.54 |
| 1988 | #105 | James Thornton | OFF | +0.33 | +0.79 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.48 |
| 1992 | #49 | Troy Auzenne | OFF | +0.45 | +0.20 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.48 |
| 1991 | #161 | Darren Lewis | OFF | +0.38 | +0.18 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 1996 | #205 | Mike Cawley | OFF | +0.04 | +0.24 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 1993 | #173 | Keshon Johnson | DEF | +0.44 | -0.02 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 1990 | #61 | Tim Ryan | DEF | +0.72 | -0.22 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 1989 | #192 | Brent Snyder | OFF | -0.02 | +0.19 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 1993 | #100 | Myron Baker | DEF | +0.55 | -0.19 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 1995 | #114 | Ray McElroy | DEF | +0.66 | -0.25 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.09 |
| 1996 | #232 | Adrian Robinson | DEF | -0.25 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 1990 | #63 | Peter Tom Willis | OFF | +0.15 | -0.09 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1988 | #51 | Dante Jones | DEF | +0.66 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | +0.01 |
| 1997 | #219 | Clarence Thompson | DEF | -0.27 | +0.07 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1995 | #15 | Ellis Johnson | DEF | +0.55 | +0.61 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.51 | -0.26 | -0.00 |
| 1994 | #196 | Lance Teichelman | DEF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1991 | #134 | Anthony Morgan | OFF | +0.01 | -0.10 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1992 | #107 | Will Furrer | OFF | -0.14 | +0.04 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1993 | #112 | Albert Fontenot | DEF | +0.16 | -0.08 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| 1996 | #82 | Scott Slutzker | OFF | +0.02 | -0.24 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1997 | #182 | Scott Von der Ahe | DEF | -0.19 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1992 | #192 | John Brown | OFF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 1987 | #101 | Sean Smith | DEF | -0.11 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1990 | #33 | Ron Cox | DEF | +0.83 | -0.26 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.23 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| 1989 | #189 | Richard Brothers | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1996 | #51 | Dedric Mathis | DEF | -0.01 | -0.12 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.17 |
| 1992 | #134 | Todd Harrison | OFF | -0.50 | -0.14 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1997 | #150 | Nate Jacquet | OFF | -0.26 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1995 | #223 | Jessie Cox | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.19 |
| 1987 | #154 | John Adickes | OFF | +0.07 | -0.28 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1988 | #133 | Troy Johnson | DEF | -0.01 | -0.18 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1992 | #161 | Mark Berry | DEF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1994 | #133 | John Covington | DEF | -0.37 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1994 | #32 | Eric Mahlum | OFF | +0.05 | -0.27 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| 1995 | #187 | Brian Gelzheiser | DEF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1996 | #191 | Keith Conlin | OFF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1988 | #189 | Caesar Rentie | OFF | -0.26 | -0.20 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1995 | #149 | Derek West | OFF | -0.29 | -0.24 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1987 | #138 | Will Johnson | DEF | -0.30 | -0.21 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1996 | #115 | Brian Milne | OFF | -0.50 | -0.08 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1987 | #193 | Archie Harris | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1990 | #176 | Bill Anderson | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1993 | #146 | Dave Hoffmann | DEF | -0.50 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1987 | #120 | Steve Bryan | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1991 | #105 | Joe Johnson | DEF | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1990 | #117 | Pat Chaffey | OFF | -0.53 | -0.10 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1992 | #80 | Jeremy Lincoln | DEF | -0.29 | -0.03 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | -0.49 |
| 1994 | #164 | Lamont Warren | OFF | +0.26 | -0.52 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.54 |
| 1989 | #136 | Greg Gilbert | DEF | -0.55 | -0.19 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1992 | #22 | Alonzo Spellman | DEF | +0.16 | -0.17 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.45 | -0.21 | -0.63 |
| 1990 | #88 | Tony Moss | OFF | -0.58 | -0.24 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1988 | #78 | Ralph Jarvis | DEF | -0.64 | -0.29 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 1997 | #117 | Monty Montgomery | DEF | -0.24 | -0.45 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.76 |
| 1990 | #32 | Fred Washington | DEF | -0.56 | -0.58 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.04 |
| 1991 | #22 | Stan Thomas | OFF | -0.28 | -0.71 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.08 |
| 1989 | #54 | Dave Zawatson | OFF | -0.65 | -0.61 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.13 |
| 1996 | #151 | Steve Martin | DEF | -0.48 | -0.62 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.13 |
| 1993 | #61 | Chris Gedney | OFF | -0.65 | -0.61 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.14 | -0.06 | -1.17 |
| 1991 | #190 | Paul Justin | OFF | -0.83 | -0.53 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.28 |
| 1997 | #156 | Carl Powell | DEF | -0.93 | -0.74 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.54 |
| 1987 | #26 | Jim Harbaugh | OFF | -0.42 | -0.47 | — | -0.36 | — | -1.49 | -0.30 | -1.70 |
| 1994 | #106 | Bradford Banta | OFF | +0.39 | -1.28 | — | -1.10 | — | -0.26 | -0.15 | -1.75 |
| 1994 | #67 | Jason Mathews | OFF | -0.52 | -0.78 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.41 | -0.26 | -1.75 |
| 1994 | #5 | Trev Alberts | DEF | -0.40 | -0.98 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -1.84 |
| 1993 | #7 | Curtis Conway | OFF | -0.28 | -0.10 | — | -0.57 | — | -1.96 | -1.36 | -2.42 |
| 1989 | #65 | Jerry Fontenot | OFF | -0.10 | -0.30 | — | -0.96 | — | -1.75 | -1.35 | -2.71 |
| 1994 | #2 | Marshall Faulk | OFF | -0.66 | -0.39 | — | +0.02 | — | -2.09 | -2.83 | -2.97 |
| 1997 | #86 | Bertrand Berry | DEF | -1.29 | -1.40 | — | -1.57 | — | -0.42 | -0.25 | -3.25 |
| 1995 | #79 | Zack Crockett | OFF | -1.42 | -1.28 | — | -1.71 | — | -0.84 | -0.58 | -3.77 |
| 1989 | #12 | Trace Armstrong | DEF | -1.10 | -0.47 | — | -1.23 | — | -2.82 | -1.72 | -4.29 |
| 1991 | #78 | Chris Gardocki | ST | -1.88 | -2.18 | — | -2.25 | — | -1.28 | -1.38 | -5.61 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.