John McVay
SF · Composite skill θ = +0.97 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.28 to +1.67
Composite θ
+0.97
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.28–+1.67
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
100%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 85 mapped picks across 14 draft classes, 1980–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.11
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1993SFVP/Director Football Operations; Bill Walsh as HC drove draft strategy; diffuse credit
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #16 | Jerry Rice | OFF | +14.71 |
| 1981 | #8 | Ronnie Lott | DEF | +8.74 |
| 1984 | #121 | Michael Carter | DEF | +6.75 |
| 1983 | #49 | Roger Craig | OFF | +6.40 |
| 1987 | #22 | Harris Barton | OFF | +6.10 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #25 | Ted Washington | DEF | -7.74 |
| 1989 | #56 | Wesley Walls | OFF | -5.84 |
| 1988 | #33 | Danny Stubbs | DEF | -3.46 |
| 1988 | #80 | Bill Romanowski | DEF | -3.24 |
| 1992 | #89 | Mark Thomas | DEF | -2.25 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 85 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1985 | #16 | Jerry Rice | OFF | +1.15 | +2.15 | — | +4.69 | — | +2.01 | +14.73 | +14.71 |
| 1981 | #8 | Ronnie Lott | DEF | -0.03 | +0.60 | — | +2.79 | — | +4.67 | +6.65 | +8.74 |
| 1984 | #121 | Michael Carter | DEF | +1.54 | +1.77 | — | +2.45 | — | +3.17 | +2.10 | +6.75 |
| 1983 | #49 | Roger Craig | OFF | +0.80 | +1.62 | — | +2.78 | — | +3.25 | +1.58 | +6.40 |
| 1987 | #22 | Harris Barton | OFF | +1.35 | +1.86 | — | +2.40 | — | +0.33 | +3.87 | +6.10 |
| 1991 | #122 | Merton Hanks | DEF | +1.72 | +2.10 | — | +2.36 | — | +1.00 | +2.08 | +5.81 |
| 1984 | #73 | Guy McIntyre | OFF | +1.03 | +0.58 | — | +1.29 | — | +4.39 | -0.66 | +3.96 |
| 1986 | #101 | Steve Wallace | OFF | +1.90 | +1.76 | — | +1.94 | — | +0.58 | -0.32 | +3.90 |
| 1986 | #76 | John Taylor | OFF | +1.22 | +1.55 | — | +1.64 | — | +1.84 | -0.18 | +3.85 |
| 1981 | #65 | Carlton Williamson | DEF | +0.92 | +1.39 | — | +1.47 | — | +2.06 | -0.07 | +3.63 |
| 1981 | #40 | Eric Wright | DEF | +0.69 | +0.71 | — | +1.53 | — | +0.40 | +1.74 | +3.30 |
| 1993 | #26 | Dana Stubblefield | DEF | +0.50 | +1.18 | — | +1.07 | — | +0.51 | +1.86 | +3.10 |
| 1993 | #166 | Chris Dalman | OFF | +1.76 | +1.21 | — | +1.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.77 |
| 1986 | #162 | Don Griffin | DEF | +1.04 | +1.75 | — | +1.36 | — | -0.18 | -0.14 | +2.59 |
| 1986 | #96 | Charles Haley | DEF | -0.03 | -0.23 | — | +0.35 | — | +2.62 | +1.79 | +2.42 |
| 1980 | #39 | Keena Turner | DEF | +1.40 | +1.41 | — | +1.19 | — | -0.22 | -0.77 | +2.09 |
| 1986 | #102 | Kevin Fagan | DEF | +0.82 | +1.29 | — | +1.06 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | +2.07 |
| 1986 | #56 | Tom Rathman | OFF | +1.18 | +1.41 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.38 | -0.19 | +1.79 |
| 1990 | #47 | Dennis Brown | DEF | +1.52 | +0.67 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | +1.60 |
| 1988 | #39 | Pierce Holt | DEF | +0.28 | +0.43 | — | +0.69 | — | +0.94 | -0.07 | +1.49 |
| 1984 | #139 | Jeff Fuller | DEF | +0.99 | +0.60 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.48 |
| 1985 | #140 | Bruce Collie | OFF | +0.87 | +0.26 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.00 |
| 1982 | #29 | Bubba Paris | OFF | +0.81 | +0.85 | — | +0.81 | — | -0.93 | -0.46 | +0.95 |
| 1989 | #122 | Johnnie Jackson | DEF | +0.78 | +0.15 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 1989 | #28 | Keith DeLong | DEF | +0.60 | +0.35 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.85 |
| 1983 | #117 | Riki Ellison | DEF | +0.21 | +0.90 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.26 | -0.17 | +0.71 |
| 1988 | #102 | Barry Helton | ST | +0.56 | +0.10 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 1984 | #56 | John Frank | OFF | +0.76 | +0.09 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.54 |
| 1982 | #195 | Ron Ferrari | DEF | +1.11 | -0.16 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 1987 | #189 | Steve DeLine | ST | -0.39 | +0.30 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 1986 | #39 | Larry Roberts | DEF | +0.72 | -0.15 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.18 | -0.07 | +0.22 |
| 1990 | #53 | Eric Davis | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.31 | — | +0.22 | +1.46 | +0.18 |
| 1991 | #45 | Ricky Watters | OFF | -1.01 | -0.38 | — | +0.39 | — | +1.41 | -0.46 | +0.18 |
| 1991 | #137 | Harry Boatswain | OFF | +0.43 | -0.23 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 1990 | #165 | Frank Pollack | OFF | +1.17 | -0.60 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.15 |
| 1980 | #20 | Jim Stuckey | DEF | +0.67 | -0.02 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.26 | -0.09 | +0.15 |
| 1983 | #90 | Tom Holmoe | DEF | +0.90 | -0.49 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.10 |
| 1989 | #84 | Keith Henderson | OFF | -0.05 | -0.19 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 1985 | #168 | Scott Barry | OFF | -0.12 | +0.10 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 1992 | #151 | Damien Russell | DEF | -0.03 | -0.06 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1991 | #53 | John Johnson | DEF | +0.17 | -0.11 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 1990 | #25 | Dexter Carter | OFF | +0.88 | -0.42 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.22 | -0.11 | -0.04 |
| 1981 | #147 | Pete Kugler | DEF | +0.36 | -0.10 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.12 |
| 1991 | #193 | Sheldon Canley | OFF | -0.35 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1981 | #121 | Lynn Thomas | DEF | -0.05 | -0.23 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1992 | #76 | Brian Bollinger | OFF | +0.32 | -0.48 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1980 | #84 | Ricky Churchman | DEF | -0.30 | +0.01 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 1993 | #116 | Artie Smith | DEF | -0.24 | -0.13 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1988 | #191 | Kevin Bryant | DEF | -0.45 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1980 | #13 | Earl Cooper | OFF | +0.58 | -0.20 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.56 | -0.24 | -0.39 |
| 1989 | #112 | Michael Barber | OFF | -0.33 | -0.17 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1987 | #134 | Paul Jokisch | OFF | -0.49 | -0.12 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1991 | #165 | Scott Bowles | OFF | -0.40 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1980 | #77 | Craig Puki | DEF | -0.09 | -0.34 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 1982 | #151 | Vince Williams | OFF | -0.49 | -0.11 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1983 | #175 | Gary Moten | DEF | -0.41 | -0.18 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1980 | #139 | Herb Williams | DEF | -0.39 | -0.23 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1981 | #36 | John Harty | DEF | -0.11 | -0.33 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.50 |
| 1987 | #162 | Bob White | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1992 | #18 | Dana Hall | DEF | -0.05 | -0.23 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.50 |
| 1982 | #139 | Newton Williams | OFF | -0.44 | -0.13 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1991 | #95 | Mitch Donahue | DEF | -0.28 | -0.30 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1984 | #24 | Todd Shell | DEF | -0.13 | -0.42 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.60 |
| 1986 | #131 | Pat Miller | DEF | -0.60 | -0.23 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1990 | #68 | Ron Lewis | OFF | -0.34 | -0.33 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1980 | #112 | Ken Times | DEF | -0.59 | -0.28 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 1981 | #122 | Arrington Jones | OFF | -0.62 | -0.19 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 1983 | #59 | Blanchard Montgomery | DEF | -0.22 | -0.46 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 1993 | #48 | Adrian Hardy | DEF | -0.44 | -0.45 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 1990 | #92 | Dean Caliguire | OFF | -0.54 | -0.42 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 1985 | #75 | Ricky Moore | OFF | -0.72 | -0.30 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 1993 | #27 | Todd Kelly | DEF | -0.32 | -0.55 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.96 |
| 1989 | #167 | Steve Hendrickson | DEF | -0.62 | -0.48 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| 1987 | #37 | Jeff Bregel | OFF | -0.34 | -0.68 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.00 |
| 1980 | #98 | David Hodge | DEF | -0.80 | -0.42 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.03 |
| 1987 | #25 | Terrence Flagler | OFF | -0.43 | -0.62 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.13 |
| 1980 | #65 | Jim Miller | ST | -0.46 | -0.70 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.24 | -0.15 | -1.21 |
| 1993 | #194 | Troy Wilson | DEF | -0.62 | -0.68 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.25 |
| 1992 | #45 | Amp Lee | OFF | -0.84 | -0.97 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.35 | -0.19 | -1.95 |
| 1986 | #64 | Tim McKyer | DEF | -1.00 | -0.49 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.67 | -0.48 | -2.01 |
| 1992 | #89 | Mark Thomas | DEF | -1.12 | -1.11 | — | -1.01 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -2.25 |
| 1988 | #80 | Bill Romanowski | DEF | -0.91 | -0.49 | — | -1.10 | — | -1.51 | -1.37 | -3.24 |
| 1988 | #33 | Danny Stubbs | DEF | -1.34 | -1.68 | — | -1.51 | — | -0.60 | -0.28 | -3.46 |
| 1989 | #56 | Wesley Walls | OFF | -1.74 | -2.45 | — | -2.40 | — | -1.69 | -1.00 | -5.84 |
| 1991 | #25 | Ted Washington | DEF | -2.57 | -2.61 | — | -2.97 | — | -2.63 | -1.73 | -7.74 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.