Bill Polian
BUF · CAR · IND · Composite skill θ = +0.70 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.21 to +1.19
Composite θ
+0.70
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.21–+1.19
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
100%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 195 mapped picks across 25 draft classes, 1985–2011 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.32
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1985–1992BUFHired Dec 1985; built 4-time SB team; fired Feb 1993
- 1995–1997CARFounding GM; left for IND
- 1998–2011INDHOF GM; Manning era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | #1 | Peyton Manning | OFF | +13.89 |
| 1988 | #40 | Thurman Thomas | OFF | +9.12 |
| 1985 | #86 | Andre Reed | OFF | +7.09 |
| 1985 | #1 | Bruce Smith | DEF | +6.67 |
| 2003 | #138 | Robert Mathis | DEF | +6.06 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #5 | Kerry Collins | OFF | -7.70 |
| 1985 | #112 | Dale Hellestrae | OFF | -7.12 |
| 2010 | #31 | Jerry Hughes | DEF | -6.98 |
| 1986 | #16 | Ronnie Harmon | OFF | -4.80 |
| 1995 | #22 | Tyrone Poole | DEF | -4.74 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 195 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1998 | #1 | Peyton Manning | OFF | +1.39 | +2.04 | — | +4.89 | — | +6.35 | +8.24 | +13.89 |
| 1988 | #40 | Thurman Thomas | OFF | +1.61 | +2.41 | — | +3.67 | — | +3.68 | +3.21 | +9.12 |
| 1985 | #86 | Andre Reed | OFF | +2.20 | +3.50 | — | +2.94 | — | +3.76 | -1.16 | +7.09 |
| 1985 | #1 | Bruce Smith | DEF | +0.92 | +1.69 | — | +3.57 | — | -2.79 | +6.39 | +6.67 |
| 2003 | #138 | Robert Mathis | DEF | +2.22 | +1.51 | -0.66 | +1.78 | +2.39 | +4.01 | +1.90 | +6.06 |
| 2001 | #30 | Reggie Wayne | OFF | +2.30 | +3.10 | -1.62 | +4.19 | -0.49 | +4.66 | +0.82 | +5.85 |
| 2002 | #11 | Dwight Freeney | DEF | +0.47 | +0.84 | — | +0.79 | — | +4.39 | +4.08 | +5.69 |
| 2001 | #118 | Ryan Diem | OFF | +2.04 | +2.71 | — | +2.60 | — | -0.24 | -0.17 | +4.76 |
| 1999 | #4 | Edgerrin James | OFF | +0.02 | +0.46 | — | +2.46 | — | +2.37 | +0.57 | +4.17 |
| 1991 | #54 | Phil Hansen | DEF | +1.80 | +2.58 | — | +2.05 | — | -0.37 | -0.18 | +3.96 |
| 1996 | #43 | Muhsin Muhammad | OFF | +1.03 | +1.68 | — | +1.56 | — | +0.77 | +1.19 | +3.89 |
| 2004 | #44 | Bob Sanders | DEF | -0.22 | +0.23 | — | +0.58 | — | +2.02 | +4.18 | +3.69 |
| 1997 | #56 | Mike Minter | DEF | +1.86 | +2.60 | — | +1.58 | — | -0.27 | -0.21 | +3.57 |
| 2006 | #30 | Joseph Addai | OFF | +0.80 | +0.90 | — | +1.61 | — | +0.96 | -0.07 | +2.90 |
| 2009 | #222 | Pat McAfee | ST | +2.11 | -0.23 | — | +0.71 | -0.04 | +1.05 | +2.11 | +2.85 |
| 1991 | #26 | Henry Jones | DEF | +1.11 | +1.58 | — | +0.77 | — | +0.08 | +1.37 | +2.84 |
| 2003 | #24 | Dallas Clark | OFF | +0.58 | +1.21 | — | +0.81 | — | +0.14 | +1.63 | +2.60 |
| 2006 | #207 | Antoine Bethea | DEF | +0.65 | +1.64 | -0.40 | +0.37 | +1.01 | +1.89 | -0.34 | +2.10 |
| 2003 | #198 | Cato June | DEF | +0.55 | +0.83 | — | +0.79 | — | +1.07 | -0.02 | +2.00 |
| 1992 | #195 | Kurt Schulz | DEF | +1.22 | +1.09 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.07 | -0.07 | +1.96 |
| 1995 | #132 | Frank Garcia | OFF | +0.93 | +1.32 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +1.90 |
| 1987 | #29 | Nate Odomes | DEF | +0.68 | +1.38 | — | +0.72 | — | +0.54 | -0.37 | +1.83 |
| 2000 | #122 | Josh Williams | DEF | +1.11 | +1.05 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.79 |
| 1987 | #8 | Shane Conlan | DEF | -0.02 | +0.29 | — | +0.58 | — | +2.53 | -0.54 | +1.71 |
| 1992 | #27 | John Fina | OFF | +1.45 | +1.68 | — | +0.71 | — | -0.81 | -0.51 | +1.61 |
| 1987 | #109 | Leon Seals | DEF | +1.12 | +0.69 | — | +0.71 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.60 |
| 2004 | #125 | Jason David | DEF | +0.67 | +1.04 | — | +0.69 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.54 |
| 1996 | #106 | Norbert Davidds-Garrido | OFF | +0.91 | +0.73 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.46 |
| 1999 | #138 | Brad Scioli | DEF | +1.33 | +0.51 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.40 |
| 2001 | #220 | Rick DeMulling | OFF | +0.48 | +0.66 | — | +0.80 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.35 |
| 2007 | #136 | Clint Session | DEF | +0.59 | +0.75 | — | +0.61 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 2010 | #63 | Pat Angerer | DEF | +0.47 | +0.55 | +0.50 | +0.39 | +1.12 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.23 |
| 2010 | #240 | Kavell Conner | DEF | +0.64 | +0.74 | +0.98 | +0.46 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.23 |
| 2006 | #199 | Charlie Johnson | OFF | +0.58 | +0.57 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +1.18 |
| 2011 | #22 | Anthony Castonzo | OFF | +1.44 | +2.06 | +1.24 | +1.36 | -0.55 | -1.09 | -0.68 | +1.11 |
| 1997 | #228 | Kris Mangum | OFF | +1.71 | +0.80 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +1.07 |
| 2004 | #141 | Jake Scott | OFF | +0.17 | +0.57 | — | +0.76 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +1.05 |
| 2009 | #127 | Austin Collie | OFF | +0.49 | +0.26 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 2006 | #94 | Freddy Keiaho | DEF | +0.66 | +0.41 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.94 |
| 2008 | #236 | Jamey Richard | OFF | +0.84 | +0.14 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.88 |
| 2009 | #56 | Fili Moala | DEF | +0.79 | +0.79 | +0.76 | +0.53 | -0.30 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.87 |
| 2007 | #242 | Keyunta Dawson | DEF | +0.73 | +0.26 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.84 |
| 1992 | #139 | Matt Darby | DEF | +0.70 | +0.37 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.81 |
| 2001 | #193 | Jason Doering | DEF | +0.82 | +0.21 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 1987 | #78 | Jamie Mueller | OFF | +0.70 | +0.63 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| 2005 | #173 | Tyjuan Hagler | DEF | +0.54 | +0.23 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.68 |
| 2003 | #58 | Mike Doss | DEF | +0.22 | +0.59 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.66 |
| 2002 | #106 | David Thornton | DEF | +0.31 | +0.51 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.57 |
| 2000 | #28 | Rob Morris | DEF | +0.87 | +0.61 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.23 | -0.16 | +0.56 |
| 1989 | #193 | Chris Hale | DEF | +0.69 | -0.01 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2005 | #60 | Kelvin Hayden | DEF | +0.55 | +0.33 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | +0.52 |
| 1996 | #193 | Scott Greene | OFF | +0.25 | +0.48 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2006 | #238 | T.J. Rushing | DEF | +0.56 | +0.04 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2009 | #201 | Curtis Painter | OFF | +0.21 | +0.37 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 2002 | #42 | Larry Tripplett | DEF | +0.50 | +0.18 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.46 |
| 2005 | #29 | Marlin Jackson | DEF | +0.49 | +0.23 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.45 |
| 1989 | #82 | Don Beebe | OFF | +0.41 | +0.22 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | +0.42 |
| 2003 | #208 | Makoa Freitas | OFF | +0.36 | +0.01 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.42 |
| 1999 | #210 | Hunter Smith | ST | +2.08 | -0.96 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.14 | -0.17 | +0.41 |
| 2004 | #229 | David Kimball | ST | -0.29 | +0.37 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2001 | #91 | Cory Bird | DEF | +0.53 | -0.01 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2008 | #59 | Mike Pollak | OFF | +0.25 | +0.16 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.31 |
| 2004 | #193 | Jim Sorgi | OFF | +0.18 | +0.02 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2010 | #162 | Brody Eldridge | OFF | +0.13 | +0.27 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 1995 | #209 | Chad Cota | DEF | +0.27 | +0.01 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.29 |
| 1995 | #191 | Jerry Colquitt | OFF | +0.01 | +0.22 | — | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 1986 | #111 | Carl Byrum | OFF | +0.40 | +0.18 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 2001 | #37 | Idrees Bashir | DEF | +0.05 | +0.52 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.27 |
| 1992 | #167 | Nate Turner | OFF | +0.21 | -0.07 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 1998 | #93 | Steve McKinney | OFF | -0.15 | +0.34 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.20 | -0.14 | +0.25 |
| 1990 | #154 | John Nies | ST | -0.33 | +0.26 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2008 | #196 | Tom Santi | OFF | -0.21 | +0.02 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 2007 | #42 | Tony Ugoh | OFF | +0.07 | +0.02 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.18 |
| 2008 | #202 | Mike Hart | OFF | +0.12 | +0.06 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 1995 | #249 | Michael Reed | DEF | -0.15 | +0.10 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 2000 | #238 | Rodregis Brooks | DEF | -0.12 | +0.08 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2003 | #122 | Steve Sciullo | OFF | -0.18 | +0.03 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2004 | #173 | Von Hutchins | DEF | +0.08 | -0.01 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1992 | #83 | Keith Goganious | DEF | +0.41 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1985 | #14 | Derrick Burroughs | DEF | +0.37 | +0.22 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.10 |
| 1988 | #135 | Kirk Roach | ST | -0.49 | +0.20 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 1996 | #234 | Kerry Hicks | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2000 | #235 | Rob Renes | DEF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1998 | #231 | Corey Gaines | DEF | -0.25 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2011 | #188 | Chris Rucker | DEF | -0.08 | +0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2004 | #69 | Gilbert Gardner | DEF | +0.15 | -0.01 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 2002 | #182 | David Pugh | DEF | -0.24 | +0.04 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1998 | #71 | E.G. Green | OFF | +0.09 | -0.18 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2007 | #32 | Anthony Gonzalez | OFF | +0.11 | -0.29 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2010 | #238 | Ricardo Mathews | DEF | +0.53 | -0.17 | +1.17 | -0.03 | -0.98 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1996 | #217 | Donnell Baker | OFF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1997 | #189 | Matt Finkes | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2005 | #243 | Anthony Davis | OFF | -0.29 | +0.12 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1995 | #188 | Steve Strahan | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2002 | #204 | Brian Allen | OFF | -0.23 | +0.09 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1996 | #73 | Winslow Oliver | OFF | +0.29 | -0.23 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| 2009 | #92 | Jerraud Powers | DEF | -0.23 | +0.32 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.08 |
| 1985 | #141 | Mike Hamby | DEF | -0.11 | -0.10 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 1999 | #250 | Corey Terry | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1986 | #180 | Butch Rolle | OFF | +1.16 | -0.58 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| 2002 | #183 | James Lewis | DEF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2010 | #246 | Ray Fisher | DEF | -0.33 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1990 | #181 | Fred DeRiggi | DEF | -0.35 | +0.01 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 2002 | #74 | Joe Jefferson | DEF | +0.03 | -0.17 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2011 | #119 | Delone Carter | OFF | +0.01 | -0.10 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 2000 | #91 | David Macklin | DEF | +0.17 | +0.07 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| 1996 | #8 | Tim Biakabutuka | OFF | +0.01 | -0.13 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.16 |
| 1991 | #194 | Amir Rasul | OFF | -0.35 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1986 | #168 | Bob Williams | OFF | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2001 | #152 | Raymond Walls | DEF | -0.31 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1985 | #169 | Ron Pitts | DEF | -0.11 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2005 | #148 | Jonathan Welsh | DEF | -0.29 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.21 |
| 1989 | #173 | Brian Jordan | DEF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2007 | #169 | Roy Hall | OFF | -0.24 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1998 | #135 | Antony Jordan | DEF | -0.15 | -0.08 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2009 | #236 | Jaimie Thomas | OFF | -0.14 | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1987 | #171 | Kerry Porter | OFF | -0.29 | +0.00 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1988 | #184 | Bo Wright | OFF | -0.40 | +0.04 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2005 | #202 | Dave Rayner | ST | -0.40 | -0.03 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| 2007 | #95 | Dante Hughes | DEF | -0.02 | -0.27 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1991 | #166 | Millard Hamilton | OFF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1995 | #171 | Andrew Peterson | OFF | -0.27 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2003 | #162 | Keyon Whiteside | DEF | -0.19 | -0.13 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2007 | #131 | Brannon Condren | DEF | -0.31 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2008 | #201 | Steve Justice | OFF | -0.19 | -0.19 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1989 | #164 | Sean Doctor | OFF | -0.43 | +0.01 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1995 | #135 | Michael Senters | DEF | -0.44 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1995 | #36 | Shawn King | DEF | +0.17 | -0.46 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1996 | #142 | Marquette Smith | OFF | -0.43 | -0.01 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1997 | #87 | Kinnon Tatum | DEF | +0.10 | -0.31 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2009 | #27 | Donald Brown | OFF | +0.25 | -0.46 | -0.10 | +0.01 | — | -0.29 | -0.15 | -0.31 |
| 1991 | #138 | Shawn Wilbourn | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1990 | #69 | Glenn Parker | OFF | +0.34 | +0.14 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.61 | -0.39 | -0.32 |
| 1997 | #122 | Tarek Saleh | DEF | -0.21 | -0.17 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1998 | #190 | Aaron Taylor | OFF | -0.33 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1990 | #100 | Eddie Fuller | OFF | -0.09 | -0.15 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1989 | #137 | Michael Andrews | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2000 | #59 | Marcus Washington | DEF | -0.05 | +0.12 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.35 |
| 1985 | #130 | Jimmy Teal | OFF | -0.33 | -0.13 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2008 | #161 | Marcus Howard | DEF | -0.31 | -0.18 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2008 | #205 | Pierre Garcon | OFF | -0.22 | +0.06 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.17 | -0.13 | -0.38 |
| 1990 | #170 | Brent Collins | DEF | -0.47 | -0.11 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2007 | #98 | Quinn Pitcock | DEF | -0.37 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1992 | #111 | Frank Kmet | DEF | -0.50 | -0.14 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2011 | #87 | Drake Nevis | DEF | -0.34 | -0.25 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2009 | #136 | Terrance Taylor | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1999 | #96 | Paul Miranda | DEF | -0.42 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1988 | #123 | Ezekial Gadson | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2010 | #94 | Kevin Thomas | DEF | -0.43 | -0.18 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 1997 | #27 | Rae Carruth | OFF | -0.29 | -0.07 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 1988 | #177 | Tim Borcky | OFF | -0.40 | -0.22 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1990 | #166 | Brent Griffith | OFF | -0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2002 | #220 | Josh Mallard | DEF | -0.35 | -0.28 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2005 | #165 | Robert Hunt | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2007 | #173 | Michael Coe | DEF | -0.47 | -0.24 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1988 | #150 | Dan Murray | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1989 | #109 | John Kolesar | OFF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1996 | #88 | J.C. Price | DEF | -0.55 | -0.21 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2000 | #138 | Matt Johnson | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2005 | #92 | Vincent Burns | DEF | -0.58 | -0.24 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1991 | #82 | Darryl Wren | DEF | -0.61 | -0.27 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1992 | #55 | James Patton | DEF | -0.38 | -0.38 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 2004 | #107 | Kendyll Pope | DEF | -0.57 | -0.27 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1986 | #77 | Leonard Burton | OFF | +0.32 | -0.68 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.67 |
| 2006 | #162 | Michael Toudouze | OFF | -0.41 | -0.41 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2008 | #127 | Jacob Tamme | OFF | +0.05 | -0.56 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.71 |
| 1990 | #42 | Carwell Gardner | OFF | +0.60 | -0.29 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.25 | -0.13 | -0.72 |
| 1995 | #29 | Blake Brockermeyer | OFF | -0.26 | +0.00 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.34 | -0.20 | -0.73 |
| 1998 | #32 | Jerome Pathon | OFF | -0.29 | -0.27 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.74 |
| 1986 | #20 | Will Wolford | OFF | -0.25 | +0.31 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.11 | -1.46 | -0.80 |
| 1985 | #63 | Hal Garner | DEF | +0.40 | -0.79 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.85 |
| 1990 | #16 | James Williams | DEF | -0.04 | -0.40 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.87 |
| 1988 | #65 | Bernard Ford | OFF | -0.68 | -0.36 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 2008 | #93 | Philip Wheeler | DEF | -0.05 | -0.43 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.20 | -0.15 | -0.92 |
| 2005 | #135 | Matt Giordano | DEF | +0.03 | -0.69 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.93 |
| 2005 | #129 | Dylan Gandy | OFF | -0.30 | -0.67 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.94 |
| 1985 | #29 | Mark Traynowicz | OFF | +0.16 | -0.87 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.00 |
| 1999 | #63 | Brandon Burlsworth | OFF | -0.67 | -0.53 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.00 |
| 1985 | #42 | Chris Burkett | OFF | -0.32 | -0.36 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.40 | -0.19 | -1.04 |
| 2010 | #129 | Jacques McClendon | OFF | -0.66 | -0.56 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.06 |
| 1996 | #111 | Emmanuel McDaniel | DEF | -0.67 | -0.55 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -1.08 |
| 1986 | #178 | Mark Pike | DEF | +2.04 | -1.55 | — | -1.14 | — | -0.25 | -0.15 | -1.10 |
| 2003 | #90 | Donald Strickland | DEF | -1.02 | -0.64 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.13 | -0.10 | -1.60 |
| 2006 | #62 | Tim Jennings | DEF | -0.47 | -0.75 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.33 | -0.25 | -1.61 |
| 2011 | #49 | Ben Ijalana | OFF | -1.15 | -1.09 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | -2.16 |
| 1987 | #33 | Roland Mitchell | DEF | -1.14 | -1.16 | — | -1.00 | — | -0.22 | -0.14 | -2.33 |
| 2004 | #68 | Ben Hartsock | OFF | -1.20 | -1.24 | — | -1.02 | — | -0.33 | -0.17 | -2.49 |
| 1985 | #57 | Frank Reich | OFF | -0.19 | -1.80 | — | -1.83 | — | -0.98 | -0.19 | -3.41 |
| 1987 | #60 | David Brandon | DEF | -2.09 | -1.61 | — | -1.62 | — | -0.56 | -0.39 | -3.95 |
| 1999 | #36 | Mike Peterson | DEF | -1.48 | -0.88 | — | -1.42 | — | -1.59 | -1.41 | -4.10 |
| 1995 | #22 | Tyrone Poole | DEF | -1.74 | -1.25 | — | -1.56 | — | -1.78 | -1.60 | -4.74 |
| 1986 | #16 | Ronnie Harmon | OFF | -1.14 | -1.72 | — | -1.41 | — | -2.46 | -1.45 | -4.80 |
| 2010 | #31 | Jerry Hughes | DEF | -2.19 | -2.46 | — | -2.56 | — | -2.59 | -1.59 | -6.98 |
| 1985 | #112 | Dale Hellestrae | OFF | -2.69 | -2.80 | — | -3.04 | — | -1.47 | -1.20 | -7.12 |
| 1995 | #5 | Kerry Collins | OFF | -2.37 | -2.19 | — | -2.98 | — | -3.70 | -1.18 | -7.70 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.