Dick Haley
PIT · Composite skill θ = +0.11 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.55 to +0.76
Composite θ
+0.11
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.55–+0.76
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
63%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 85 mapped picks across 11 draft classes, 1980–1990 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.20
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1990PITDirector Player Personnel; Chuck Noll HC; ran draft operations
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | #44 | Dermontti Dawson | OFF | +12.52 |
| 1987 | #150 | Greg Lloyd | DEF | +9.46 |
| 1990 | #128 | Barry Foster | OFF | +4.68 |
| 1981 | #183 | David Little | DEF | +4.12 |
| 1989 | #34 | Carnell Lake | DEF | +3.96 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #101 | Dan Turk | OFF | -5.85 |
| 1982 | #124 | Ken Dallafior | OFF | -3.51 |
| 1986 | #135 | Brent Jones | OFF | -3.42 |
| 1987 | #122 | Hardy Nickerson | DEF | -3.26 |
| 1990 | #97 | Chris Calloway | OFF | -2.71 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 85 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1988 | #44 | Dermontti Dawson | OFF | +1.91 | +2.78 | — | +3.14 | — | +2.00 | +12.08 | +12.52 |
| 1987 | #150 | Greg Lloyd | DEF | +1.12 | +1.95 | — | +2.78 | — | +4.07 | +6.20 | +9.46 |
| 1990 | #128 | Barry Foster | OFF | +1.00 | +1.15 | — | +1.45 | — | +2.17 | +2.14 | +4.68 |
| 1981 | #183 | David Little | DEF | +2.25 | +1.96 | — | +1.78 | — | +0.73 | -0.27 | +4.12 |
| 1989 | #34 | Carnell Lake | DEF | +1.14 | +2.13 | — | +1.81 | — | -0.15 | +1.18 | +3.96 |
| 1987 | #10 | Rod Woodson | DEF | -0.57 | +0.02 | — | +1.44 | — | -0.01 | +5.12 | +3.73 |
| 1980 | #165 | Tunch Ilkin | OFF | +1.71 | +1.84 | — | +1.04 | — | +1.40 | -0.53 | +3.25 |
| 1984 | #23 | Louis Lipps | OFF | +0.83 | +1.23 | — | +1.25 | — | +1.57 | -0.29 | +2.92 |
| 1984 | #111 | Terry Long | OFF | +1.32 | +1.51 | — | +1.09 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | +2.43 |
| 1981 | #156 | Bryan Hinkle | DEF | +1.57 | +1.42 | — | +1.13 | — | -0.60 | -0.45 | +2.11 |
| 1983 | #164 | Eric Williams | DEF | +0.69 | +1.06 | — | +0.89 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.76 |
| 1989 | #174 | D.J. Johnson | DEF | +0.92 | +1.12 | — | +0.67 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.65 |
| 1982 | #172 | Edmund Nelson | DEF | +0.86 | +0.71 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.48 |
| 1982 | #70 | Mike Merriweather | DEF | -0.30 | +0.27 | — | +0.56 | — | +2.31 | -0.63 | +1.39 |
| 1980 | #56 | John Goodman | DEF | +0.50 | +0.69 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | +1.17 |
| 1980 | #138 | Craig Wolfley | OFF | +1.00 | +1.08 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.57 | -0.33 | +1.16 |
| 1984 | #108 | Weegie Thompson | OFF | +1.43 | +0.29 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.01 |
| 1987 | #94 | Thomas Everett | DEF | +0.34 | +0.87 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.15 | -0.10 | +0.80 |
| 1988 | #155 | Warren Williams | OFF | +0.95 | +0.28 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.78 |
| 1982 | #97 | Rick Woods | DEF | +0.72 | +0.12 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.73 |
| 1986 | #175 | Rodney Carter | OFF | +0.53 | +0.08 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.65 |
| 1985 | #160 | Gregg Carr | DEF | +0.83 | +0.01 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 1982 | #182 | Emil Boures | OFF | +0.36 | +0.12 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 1982 | #12 | Walter Abercrombie | OFF | +0.40 | +0.48 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.48 | -0.22 | +0.27 |
| 1986 | #36 | Gerald Williams | DEF | +0.55 | +0.64 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.88 | -0.41 | +0.22 |
| 1989 | #61 | Derek Hill | OFF | +0.09 | +0.18 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 1984 | #164 | Chris Brown | DEF | +0.06 | +0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 1990 | #43 | Kenny Davidson | DEF | +0.27 | -0.22 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | +0.02 |
| 1989 | #91 | Jerrol Williams | DEF | +0.27 | -0.20 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.00 |
| 1987 | #38 | Delton Hall | DEF | +0.42 | -0.22 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| 1987 | #178 | Chris Kelley | OFF | -0.45 | -0.09 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1985 | #187 | Alan Andrews | OFF | -0.46 | -0.10 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1988 | #128 | Jerry Reese | DEF | -0.13 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 1989 | #118 | David Arnold | DEF | -0.15 | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1984 | #191 | Scott Campbell | OFF | +0.09 | -0.17 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 1988 | #182 | Marc Zeno | OFF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1982 | #167 | Craig Bingham | DEF | -0.01 | -0.27 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| 1987 | #66 | Charles Lockett | OFF | -0.04 | -0.20 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1990 | #155 | Ronald Heard | OFF | -0.41 | -0.05 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1986 | #148 | Domingo Bryant | DEF | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1990 | #182 | Dan Grayson | DEF | -0.44 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1990 | #70 | Neil O'Donnell | OFF | -0.73 | -0.21 | — | -0.13 | — | +0.46 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| 1980 | #193 | Nate Johnson | OFF | -0.48 | -0.11 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1982 | #155 | Mike Perko | DEF | -0.52 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1984 | #135 | Van Hughes | DEF | -0.53 | -0.15 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1986 | #122 | Erroll Tucker | DEF | -0.54 | -0.18 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1983 | #191 | Mark Kirchner | OFF | -0.38 | -0.26 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1990 | #81 | Craig Veasey | DEF | -0.25 | -0.38 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1988 | #70 | Chuck Lanza | OFF | -0.03 | -0.53 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1985 | #136 | Cam Jacobs | DEF | -0.60 | -0.23 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1983 | #52 | Wayne Capers | OFF | -0.16 | -0.39 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 1983 | #106 | Bo Metcalf | DEF | -0.64 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1986 | #94 | Bill Callahan | DEF | -0.62 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1989 | #24 | Tom Ricketts | OFF | +0.11 | -0.53 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.66 |
| 1981 | #17 | Keith Gary | DEF | +0.41 | -0.46 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.41 | -0.15 | -0.67 |
| 1981 | #127 | Ricky Martin | OFF | -0.60 | -0.23 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1980 | #35 | Bob Kohrs | DEF | +0.17 | -0.69 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.70 |
| 1990 | #21 | Eric Green | OFF | -0.50 | -0.27 | — | -0.37 | — | +0.39 | -0.34 | -0.72 |
| 1980 | #110 | Bill Hurley | DEF | -0.68 | -0.31 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 1984 | #52 | Chris Kolodziejski | OFF | -0.69 | -0.46 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 1980 | #83 | Ray Sydnor | OFF | -0.81 | -0.45 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 1983 | #79 | Todd Seabaugh | DEF | -0.41 | -0.45 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 1983 | #140 | Gregg Garrity | OFF | -0.42 | -0.43 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.85 |
| 1981 | #44 | Anthony Washington | DEF | -0.30 | -0.58 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.86 |
| 1987 | #141 | Tim Johnson | DEF | -0.52 | -0.30 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.99 |
| 1980 | #28 | Mark Malone | OFF | -0.28 | -0.23 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.68 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| 1988 | #121 | Darin Jordan | DEF | -0.64 | -0.54 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.05 |
| 1985 | #47 | Mark Behning | OFF | -0.44 | -0.68 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.08 |
| 1985 | #20 | Darryl Sims | DEF | -0.19 | -0.78 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.12 |
| 1981 | #100 | Robbie Martin | OFF | -0.87 | -0.48 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.18 |
| 1989 | #144 | Mark Stock | OFF | -0.85 | -0.62 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.36 |
| 1981 | #73 | Rick Donnalley | OFF | -0.68 | -0.77 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.44 |
| 1989 | #7 | Tim Worley | OFF | -0.46 | -0.56 | — | -0.79 | — | -0.22 | -0.12 | -1.47 |
| 1982 | #43 | John Meyer | OFF | -0.90 | -0.78 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.53 |
| 1983 | #21 | Gabe Rivera | DEF | -0.85 | -0.80 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.07 | -0.02 | -1.55 |
| 1988 | #18 | Aaron Jones | DEF | -0.15 | -0.90 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.38 | -0.17 | -1.63 |
| 1986 | #9 | John Rienstra | OFF | -0.45 | -0.81 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.31 | -0.17 | -1.73 |
| 1983 | #133 | Paul Skansi | OFF | -1.01 | -0.91 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -2.00 |
| 1986 | #67 | Bubby Brister | OFF | -1.16 | -0.60 | — | -0.96 | — | -1.00 | -0.21 | -2.45 |
| 1985 | #74 | Liffort Hobley | DEF | -1.53 | -1.09 | — | -1.00 | — | -0.21 | -0.13 | -2.48 |
| 1990 | #97 | Chris Calloway | OFF | -1.15 | -1.27 | — | -1.24 | — | -0.32 | -0.19 | -2.71 |
| 1987 | #122 | Hardy Nickerson | DEF | -1.09 | -0.77 | — | -1.34 | — | -1.02 | -0.97 | -3.26 |
| 1986 | #135 | Brent Jones | OFF | -2.07 | -1.52 | — | -1.34 | — | -0.38 | -0.20 | -3.42 |
| 1982 | #124 | Ken Dallafior | OFF | -1.89 | -1.54 | — | -1.50 | — | -0.39 | -0.22 | -3.51 |
| 1985 | #101 | Dan Turk | OFF | -2.46 | -2.32 | — | -2.45 | — | -1.18 | -0.84 | -5.85 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.