Andy Reid
PHI · Composite skill θ = +0.40 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.22 to +1.01
Evidence: 41 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2001–2005 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.14
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2001–2005PHIHC with final say after Modrak left for BUF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | #91 | Brian Westbrook | OFF | +5.77 |
| 2005 | #146 | Trent Cole | DEF | +3.61 |
| 2002 | #26 | Lito Sheppard | DEF | +2.46 |
| 2004 | #16 | Shawn Andrews | OFF | +2.16 |
| 2005 | #31 | Mike Patterson | DEF | +1.52 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #185 | Jeremy Bridges | OFF | -2.39 |
| 2002 | #238 | Raheem Brock | DEF | -1.92 |
| 2001 | #63 | Derrick Burgess | DEF | -1.84 |
| 2001 | #155 | A.J. Feeley | OFF | -1.78 |
| 2001 | #147 | Tony Stewart | OFF | -1.63 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 41 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2002 | #91 | Brian Westbrook | OFF | +1.18 | +1.45 | — | +2.44 | — | +1.99 | +2.03 | +5.77 |
| 2005 | #146 | Trent Cole | DEF | +1.81 | +2.61 | +0.16 | +2.05 | +0.27 | +1.97 | -0.13 | +3.61 |
| 2002 | #26 | Lito Sheppard | DEF | +0.35 | +0.10 | — | +0.52 | — | +1.68 | +1.76 | +2.46 |
| 2004 | #16 | Shawn Andrews | OFF | -0.15 | +0.02 | — | +0.23 | — | +1.97 | +2.02 | +2.16 |
| 2005 | #31 | Mike Patterson | DEF | +0.90 | +1.21 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.43 | -0.22 | +1.52 |
| 2003 | #61 | L.J. Smith | OFF | +0.95 | +1.02 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +1.50 |
| 2002 | #59 | Sheldon Brown | DEF | +1.14 | +1.20 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.41 | -0.33 | +1.45 |
| 2005 | #35 | Reggie Brown | OFF | +0.93 | +0.67 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.16 |
| 2002 | #58 | Michael Lewis | DEF | +0.33 | +0.49 | — | +0.31 | — | +0.90 | -0.14 | +1.10 |
| 2005 | #126 | Todd Herremans | OFF | +1.30 | +1.98 | -0.02 | +1.28 | -0.92 | -0.26 | -0.19 | +1.05 |
| 2004 | #162 | Thomas Tapeh | OFF | +0.52 | +0.45 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2004 | #192 | Dexter Wynn | DEF | +0.33 | -0.01 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 2004 | #129 | J.R. Reed | DEF | +0.34 | -0.03 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| 2004 | #185 | Andy Hall | OFF | -0.03 | +0.18 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2001 | #25 | Freddie Mitchell | OFF | +0.68 | -0.19 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.21 |
| 2004 | #227 | Adrien Clarke | OFF | +0.05 | -0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2005 | #247 | Keyonta Marshall | DEF | -0.22 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2003 | #244 | Norman LeJeune | DEF | -0.25 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2004 | #242 | Bruce Perry | OFF | -0.16 | +0.16 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2002 | #198 | Tyreo Harrison | DEF | -0.06 | -0.06 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2003 | #131 | Jamaal Green | DEF | -0.26 | -0.10 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2005 | #252 | David Bergeron | DEF | -0.33 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2002 | #162 | Freddie Milons | OFF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2004 | #243 | Dominic Furio | OFF | -0.27 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 2005 | #172 | Scott Young | OFF | -0.09 | -0.23 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2004 | #131 | Trey Darilek | OFF | -0.05 | -0.31 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2005 | #211 | Calvin Armstrong | OFF | -0.33 | -0.17 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2001 | #121 | Correll Buckhalter | OFF | +0.25 | -0.55 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.21 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| 2005 | #102 | Sean Considine | DEF | -0.06 | -0.29 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.45 |
| 2005 | #77 | Ryan Moats | OFF | -0.30 | -0.23 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2003 | #95 | Billy McMullen | OFF | -0.04 | -0.39 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2002 | #124 | Scott Peters | OFF | -0.48 | -0.32 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2001 | #55 | Quinton Caver | DEF | -0.39 | -0.48 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2004 | #89 | Matt Ware | DEF | -0.31 | -0.61 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.91 |
| 2005 | #63 | Matt McCoy | DEF | -0.54 | -0.54 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -1.08 |
| 2003 | #15 | Jerome McDougle | DEF | -0.34 | -1.00 | — | -0.78 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.52 |
| 2001 | #147 | Tony Stewart | OFF | -1.21 | -0.81 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.63 |
| 2001 | #155 | A.J. Feeley | OFF | -1.05 | -0.79 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -1.78 |
| 2001 | #63 | Derrick Burgess | DEF | -0.97 | -0.84 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.22 | -0.11 | -1.84 |
| 2002 | #238 | Raheem Brock | DEF | -1.28 | -0.82 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.92 |
| 2003 | #185 | Jeremy Bridges | OFF | -1.40 | -1.11 | — | -1.04 | — | -0.10 | -0.08 | -2.39 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.