Tom Modrak
PHI · Composite skill θ = +0.67 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.06 to +1.39
Evidence: 54 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 1995–2000 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.16
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1995–2000PHIVP Player Personnel; Vermeil/Reid early era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #61 | Brian Dawkins | DEF | +11.23 |
| 1999 | #2 | Donovan McNabb | OFF | +5.76 |
| 1998 | #72 | Jeremiah Trotter | DEF | +4.86 |
| 1998 | #11 | Tra Thomas | OFF | +3.55 |
| 1995 | #50 | Bobby Taylor | DEF | +3.01 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #61 | Bobbie Williams | OFF | -4.16 |
| 1995 | #208 | Fred McCrary | OFF | -3.40 |
| 1998 | #85 | Allen Rossum | DEF | -3.13 |
| 1996 | #54 | Jason Dunn | OFF | -3.01 |
| 1997 | #57 | James Darling | DEF | -1.60 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 54 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #61 | Brian Dawkins | DEF | +1.26 | +2.47 | — | +2.58 | — | +6.32 | +7.26 | +11.23 |
| 1999 | #2 | Donovan McNabb | OFF | +1.17 | +1.36 | — | +2.52 | — | +4.57 | -0.61 | +5.76 |
| 1998 | #72 | Jeremiah Trotter | DEF | +0.60 | +0.92 | — | +1.32 | — | +3.85 | +1.72 | +4.86 |
| 1998 | #11 | Tra Thomas | OFF | +1.54 | +2.15 | — | +1.48 | — | +1.66 | -1.20 | +3.55 |
| 1995 | #50 | Bobby Taylor | DEF | +1.12 | +1.67 | — | +1.32 | — | +0.79 | -0.22 | +3.01 |
| 1998 | #112 | Brandon Whiting | DEF | +1.25 | +1.15 | — | +1.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.36 |
| 2000 | #36 | Todd Pinkston | OFF | +1.11 | +1.19 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.82 |
| 1999 | #128 | Damon Moore | DEF | +0.71 | +0.80 | — | +0.76 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.51 |
| 1995 | #72 | Greg Jefferson | DEF | +0.77 | +0.86 | — | +0.68 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.48 |
| 1996 | #25 | Jermane Mayberry | OFF | +0.81 | +0.89 | — | +0.54 | — | +0.54 | -0.35 | +1.48 |
| 1997 | #71 | Duce Staley | OFF | +0.69 | +0.61 | — | +1.02 | — | -0.34 | -0.21 | +1.39 |
| 1999 | #172 | Cecil Martin | OFF | +1.08 | +1.10 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.29 |
| 2000 | #6 | Corey Simon | DEF | +0.28 | +0.58 | — | +0.38 | — | +0.79 | -0.17 | +1.12 |
| 1995 | #7 | Mike Mamula | DEF | +0.68 | +0.60 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.88 |
| 1998 | #142 | Ike Reese | DEF | +1.39 | -0.74 | — | -0.19 | — | +1.01 | -0.07 | +0.61 |
| 1997 | #155 | Luther Broughton | OFF | +0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.49 |
| 1996 | #121 | Ray Farmer | DEF | +0.23 | +0.24 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.46 |
| 1999 | #130 | Na Brown | OFF | +0.58 | +0.16 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.46 |
| 1995 | #78 | Chris Jones | OFF | +0.19 | +0.21 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 1999 | #97 | John Welbourn | OFF | -0.01 | +0.44 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.34 |
| 1996 | #85 | Bobby Hoying | OFF | +0.14 | +0.31 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 1999 | #64 | Doug Brzezinski | OFF | +0.69 | -0.09 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.20 |
| 1999 | #251 | Pernell Davis | DEF | -0.16 | +0.13 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 1999 | #208 | Jed Weaver | OFF | -0.14 | +0.11 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 1996 | #197 | Tony Johnson | OFF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1997 | #227 | DeAuntae Brown | DEF | -0.23 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 1997 | #225 | Byron Capers | DEF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1998 | #220 | Chris Akins | DEF | -0.25 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1995 | #119 | Dave Barr | OFF | -0.15 | +0.06 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1995 | #210 | Kevin Bouie | OFF | -0.30 | +0.12 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1999 | #201 | Troy Smith | OFF | -0.26 | +0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1997 | #207 | Koy Detmer | OFF | +1.49 | -0.46 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 1996 | #199 | Phillip Riley | OFF | -0.29 | +0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| 1997 | #190 | Antwuan Wyatt | OFF | -0.28 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2000 | #178 | John Frank | DEF | -0.33 | +0.02 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 1995 | #248 | Howard Smothers | OFF | -0.23 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 1998 | #240 | Melvin Thomas | OFF | -0.24 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2000 | #171 | Thomas Hamner | OFF | -0.38 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2000 | #192 | John Romero | OFF | -0.33 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1996 | #147 | Whit Marshall | DEF | -0.46 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1999 | #35 | Barry Gardner | DEF | +0.28 | -0.48 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.48 |
| 2000 | #99 | Gari Scott | OFF | -0.45 | -0.18 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1998 | #116 | Clarence Love | DEF | -0.53 | -0.31 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 1997 | #25 | Jon Harris | DEF | -0.26 | -0.42 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 1996 | #194 | Steve White | DEF | -0.70 | -0.30 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 1997 | #119 | Damien Robinson | DEF | -0.87 | -0.48 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -1.09 |
| 1997 | #152 | N.D. Kalu | DEF | -0.34 | -0.66 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | -1.25 |
| 1997 | #198 | Ed Jasper | DEF | -0.70 | -0.64 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.26 |
| 1995 | #58 | Barrett Brooks | OFF | -0.41 | -0.41 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.46 | -0.30 | -1.47 |
| 1997 | #57 | James Darling | DEF | -0.38 | -0.71 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.32 | -0.24 | -1.60 |
| 1996 | #54 | Jason Dunn | OFF | -1.25 | -1.05 | — | -1.33 | — | -0.68 | -0.38 | -3.01 |
| 1998 | #85 | Allen Rossum | DEF | -1.33 | -1.52 | — | -1.35 | — | -0.38 | -0.33 | -3.13 |
| 1995 | #208 | Fred McCrary | OFF | -1.74 | -1.32 | — | -1.62 | — | -0.27 | -0.23 | -3.40 |
| 2000 | #61 | Bobbie Williams | OFF | -1.63 | -1.76 | — | -1.74 | — | -0.84 | -0.62 | -4.16 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.