Dick Steinberg
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.59 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.39 to +0.21
Evidence: 45 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 1989–1994 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.27
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1989–1993NYJNamed VP + GM Dec 1989; served through 1995
- 1994–1994NYJGM 1990-94; died July 1995
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #63 | Mo Lewis | DEF | +7.39 |
| 1990 | #167 | Dwayne White | OFF | +2.02 |
| 1989 | #151 | Marvin Washington | DEF | +2.01 |
| 1989 | #42 | Dennis Byrd | DEF | +1.05 |
| 1993 | #144 | Richie Anderson | OFF | +0.85 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | #126 | Tony Martin | OFF | -4.15 |
| 1992 | #166 | Jeff Blake | OFF | -3.78 |
| 1994 | #12 | Aaron Glenn | DEF | -3.18 |
| 1989 | #181 | Stevon Moore | DEF | -2.68 |
| 1990 | #140 | Terance Mathis | OFF | -2.60 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 45 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1991 | #63 | Mo Lewis | DEF | +2.34 | +3.53 | — | +3.05 | — | +1.33 | +1.46 | +7.39 |
| 1990 | #167 | Dwayne White | OFF | +0.99 | +1.31 | — | +0.89 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.02 |
| 1989 | #151 | Marvin Washington | DEF | +1.31 | +1.31 | — | +0.81 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +2.01 |
| 1989 | #42 | Dennis Byrd | DEF | +0.60 | +0.61 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.05 |
| 1993 | #144 | Richie Anderson | OFF | +1.30 | +0.60 | — | -0.36 | — | +0.76 | -0.24 | +0.85 |
| 1989 | #98 | Ron Stallworth | DEF | +0.21 | +0.49 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 1994 | #208 | Glenn Foley | OFF | +0.28 | +0.29 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.62 |
| 1992 | #127 | Cal Dixon | OFF | +0.86 | +0.03 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1992 | #15 | Johnny Mitchell | OFF | +0.29 | +0.29 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.45 |
| 1991 | #94 | Mark Gunn | DEF | +0.58 | -0.02 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 1992 | #68 | Siupeli Malamala | OFF | +0.24 | +0.09 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.03 |
| 1989 | #70 | Joe Mott | DEF | +0.03 | -0.03 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| 1993 | #4 | Marvin Jones | DEF | +1.06 | +1.23 | — | +0.25 | — | -1.56 | -1.45 | -0.11 |
| 1991 | #175 | Doug Parrish | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1990 | #84 | Troy Taylor | OFF | -0.11 | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1994 | #173 | Fred Lester | OFF | -0.37 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1994 | #94 | Lou Benfatti | DEF | -0.08 | -0.19 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1991 | #160 | Mike Riley | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1989 | #153 | Titus Dixon | OFF | -0.35 | -0.06 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1991 | #148 | Blaise Bryant | OFF | -0.44 | -0.01 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1990 | #134 | Robert McWright | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1994 | #117 | Orlando Parker | OFF | -0.42 | -0.12 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1989 | #14 | Jeff Lageman | DEF | -0.03 | +0.47 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.61 | -0.29 | -0.40 |
| 1993 | #171 | Alec Millen | OFF | -0.37 | -0.20 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1990 | #168 | Basil Proctor | DEF | -0.47 | -0.11 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1994 | #152 | Horace Morris | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1990 | #112 | Tony Savage | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1993 | #120 | Adrian Murrell | OFF | +0.00 | -0.06 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.44 |
| 1992 | #42 | Kurt Barber | DEF | +0.36 | -0.57 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 1991 | #34 | Browning Nagle | OFF | -0.25 | -0.20 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1992 | #96 | Keo Coleman | DEF | -0.49 | -0.29 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1994 | #41 | Ryan Yarborough | OFF | -0.05 | -0.43 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 1993 | #88 | David Ware | OFF | -0.58 | -0.42 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 1993 | #115 | Fred Baxter | OFF | +0.66 | -0.40 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.25 | -0.14 | -0.83 |
| 1990 | #56 | Tony Stargell | DEF | -0.55 | -0.31 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.98 |
| 1993 | #36 | Coleman Rudolph | DEF | -0.68 | -0.52 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.05 |
| 1990 | #2 | Blair Thomas | OFF | -0.01 | -0.38 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.28 | -0.19 | -1.26 |
| 1990 | #28 | Reggie Rembert | OFF | -0.85 | -0.63 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.37 |
| 1993 | #129 | Kenny Shedd | OFF | -1.05 | -0.63 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.50 |
| 1992 | #154 | Glenn Cadrez | DEF | -0.57 | -1.25 | — | -1.17 | — | -0.17 | -0.15 | -2.24 |
| 1990 | #140 | Terance Mathis | OFF | -0.64 | -1.46 | — | -1.21 | — | -0.40 | -0.28 | -2.60 |
| 1989 | #181 | Stevon Moore | DEF | -1.65 | -1.15 | — | -1.16 | — | -0.13 | -0.11 | -2.68 |
| 1994 | #12 | Aaron Glenn | DEF | -0.28 | +0.45 | — | -0.36 | — | -2.91 | -2.88 | -3.18 |
| 1992 | #166 | Jeff Blake | OFF | -1.97 | -1.60 | — | -1.84 | — | -0.23 | -0.06 | -3.78 |
| 1989 | #126 | Tony Martin | OFF | -2.23 | -1.67 | — | -1.81 | — | -0.47 | -0.31 | -4.15 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.