Ken Meyer/staff
NO · Composite skill θ = -0.06 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.82 to +0.70
Evidence: 35 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1980–1984 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.46
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1984NODiffuse pre-Finks era; HC Bum Phillips had personnel input from 1981
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #51 | Rickey Jackson | DEF | +6.88 |
| 1984 | #97 | Joel Hilgenberg | OFF | +3.15 |
| 1981 | #144 | Johnnie Poe | DEF | +3.14 |
| 1981 | #71 | Hoby Brenner | OFF | +1.86 |
| 1982 | #114 | Tony Elliott | DEF | +1.78 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #12 | Stan Brock | OFF | -5.82 |
| 1982 | #86 | Morten Andersen | ST | -4.57 |
| 1984 | #68 | Terry Hoage | DEF | -4.31 |
| 1984 | #42 | Jumpy Geathers | DEF | -3.32 |
| 1981 | #128 | Jerry Boyarsky | DEF | -1.82 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 35 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #51 | Rickey Jackson | DEF | +1.52 | +2.79 | — | +3.47 | — | +4.67 | -2.17 | +6.88 |
| 1984 | #97 | Joel Hilgenberg | OFF | +1.74 | +1.30 | — | +1.32 | — | +0.79 | -0.17 | +3.15 |
| 1981 | #144 | Johnnie Poe | DEF | +1.45 | +1.94 | — | +1.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +3.14 |
| 1981 | #71 | Hoby Brenner | OFF | +1.66 | +2.32 | — | -0.17 | — | +0.75 | -0.67 | +1.86 |
| 1982 | #114 | Tony Elliott | DEF | +1.02 | +1.07 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | +1.78 |
| 1982 | #30 | Brad Edelman | OFF | +0.60 | +0.97 | — | +0.67 | — | +0.71 | -0.18 | +1.72 |
| 1981 | #166 | Glen Redd | DEF | +0.84 | +0.59 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.95 |
| 1980 | #41 | Dave Waymer | DEF | +0.92 | +1.44 | — | +0.82 | — | -0.94 | -1.32 | +0.87 |
| 1983 | #38 | Steve Korte | OFF | +0.70 | +0.59 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | +0.82 |
| 1982 | #66 | Eugene Goodlow | OFF | +0.54 | +0.40 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.69 |
| 1981 | #29 | Russell Gary | DEF | +0.11 | +0.51 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.23 | -0.12 | +0.47 |
| 1981 | #1 | George Rogers | OFF | -0.28 | -0.29 | — | -0.78 | — | +1.26 | +1.54 | +0.34 |
| 1983 | #65 | John Tice | OFF | +1.38 | +0.18 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.49 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| 1981 | #57 | Frank Warren | DEF | +1.75 | +0.04 | — | +0.15 | — | -1.57 | -0.73 | -0.10 |
| 1981 | #112 | Louis Oubre | OFF | -0.17 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.14 |
| 1984 | #156 | Don Thorp | DEF | -0.36 | -0.10 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.31 |
| 1984 | #123 | Jitter Fields | DEF | -0.26 | -0.21 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1982 | #68 | Kenny Duckett | OFF | +0.03 | -0.40 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| 1984 | #69 | Tyrone Anthony | OFF | -0.01 | -0.34 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 1981 | #167 | Kevin Williams | OFF | -0.51 | -0.14 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1980 | #177 | Mike Morucci | OFF | -0.55 | -0.09 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1982 | #58 | Rodney Lewis | DEF | -0.17 | -0.44 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| 1982 | #142 | Marvin Lewis | OFF | -0.55 | -0.13 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1981 | #139 | Nat Hudson | OFF | -0.21 | -0.40 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1983 | #98 | Gary Lewis | DEF | -0.50 | -0.27 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1980 | #150 | Lester Boyd | DEF | -0.67 | -0.28 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 1982 | #76 | John Krimm | DEF | -0.53 | -0.40 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.77 |
| 1982 | #13 | Lindsay Scott | OFF | +0.11 | -0.36 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.79 |
| 1980 | #96 | Mike Jolly | DEF | -0.73 | -0.36 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1983 | #66 | Cliff Austin | OFF | -0.52 | -0.37 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 1981 | #128 | Jerry Boyarsky | DEF | -1.16 | -0.75 | — | -0.78 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.82 |
| 1984 | #42 | Jumpy Geathers | DEF | -0.66 | -1.46 | — | -1.38 | — | -1.21 | -0.56 | -3.32 |
| 1984 | #68 | Terry Hoage | DEF | -1.77 | -1.59 | — | -1.79 | — | -0.97 | -0.71 | -4.31 |
| 1982 | #86 | Morten Andersen | ST | -1.44 | -4.86 | — | -3.92 | — | +3.81 | +1.19 | -4.57 |
| 1980 | #12 | Stan Brock | OFF | +0.85 | +1.61 | — | +0.34 | — | -8.81 | -5.97 | -5.82 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.