Patrick Sullivan
NE · Composite skill θ = -0.49 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.23 to +0.25
Evidence: 55 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 1983–1989 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.29
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1983–1989NEOwner family; ran personnel through Sullivan-ownership era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #23 | Bruce Armstrong | OFF | +4.25 |
| 1989 | #96 | Maurice Hurst | DEF | +3.35 |
| 1988 | #43 | Vincent Brown | DEF | +3.00 |
| 1989 | #63 | Marv Cook | OFF | +2.97 |
| 1988 | #87 | Tim Goad | DEF | +2.71 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | #1 | Irving Fryar | OFF | -16.29 |
| 1987 | #98 | Rich Gannon | OFF | -6.95 |
| 1985 | #28 | Trevor Matich | OFF | -5.03 |
| 1986 | #54 | Vencie Glenn | DEF | -3.18 |
| 1985 | #84 | Audray McMillian | DEF | -2.38 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 55 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1987 | #23 | Bruce Armstrong | OFF | +2.20 | +3.19 | — | +2.10 | — | +0.66 | -1.76 | +4.25 |
| 1989 | #96 | Maurice Hurst | DEF | +1.56 | +2.24 | — | +1.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +3.35 |
| 1988 | #43 | Vincent Brown | DEF | +1.49 | +1.72 | — | +1.56 | — | -0.21 | -0.13 | +3.00 |
| 1989 | #63 | Marv Cook | OFF | +0.80 | +0.86 | — | +0.04 | — | +2.10 | +2.11 | +2.97 |
| 1988 | #87 | Tim Goad | DEF | +1.21 | +1.93 | — | +1.23 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | +2.71 |
| 1983 | #101 | Johnny Rembert | DEF | +1.28 | +0.71 | — | +0.86 | — | +1.88 | -0.20 | +2.69 |
| 1986 | #192 | Brent Williams | DEF | +1.28 | +1.66 | — | +1.06 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +2.44 |
| 1983 | #187 | Craig James | OFF | +0.60 | +0.72 | — | +0.73 | — | +1.06 | -0.02 | +1.91 |
| 1988 | #17 | John Stephens | OFF | +0.66 | +0.70 | — | +0.04 | — | +0.93 | -0.08 | +1.14 |
| 1984 | #124 | Paul Fairchild | OFF | +1.03 | +0.32 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.01 |
| 1984 | #151 | Ernest Gibson | DEF | +0.92 | +0.07 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| 1983 | #80 | Steve Moore | OFF | +0.53 | +0.31 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.62 |
| 1983 | #74 | Stephen Starring | OFF | +0.82 | +0.09 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.59 |
| 1985 | #48 | Garin Veris | DEF | +0.48 | +0.25 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.16 | -0.06 | +0.53 |
| 1987 | #79 | Bob Perryman | OFF | +0.31 | +0.62 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.49 |
| 1985 | #52 | Jim Bowman | DEF | +0.97 | -0.16 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.43 |
| 1983 | #15 | Tony Eason | OFF | +0.41 | +0.09 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.31 | -0.05 | +0.41 |
| 1984 | #192 | Derwin Williams | OFF | +0.61 | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 1984 | #184 | Bruce Kallmeyer | ST | -0.45 | +0.25 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 1987 | #107 | Tim Jordan | DEF | +0.08 | -0.01 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1988 | #100 | Teddy Garcia | ST | -0.20 | +0.10 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 1988 | #154 | Steve Johnson | OFF | -0.15 | -0.04 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 1988 | #97 | Sammy Martin | OFF | +0.40 | -0.20 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1983 | #155 | Mike Bass | ST | -0.52 | +0.18 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1989 | #73 | Chris Gannon | DEF | +0.08 | -0.25 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1989 | #100 | Michael Timpson | OFF | +0.32 | -0.24 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.21 |
| 1988 | #181 | Darryl Usher | OFF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1986 | #187 | Ray McDonald | OFF | -0.39 | -0.03 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1989 | #165 | Eric Mitchel | OFF | -0.43 | +0.01 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1987 | #163 | Gene Taylor | OFF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1989 | #178 | Eric Lindstrom | DEF | -0.46 | -0.10 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1983 | #128 | Darryl Lewis | OFF | -0.62 | -0.25 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1986 | #109 | Scott Gieselman | OFF | -0.62 | -0.26 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1987 | #116 | Tom Gibson | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1986 | #137 | Greg Robinson | OFF | -0.44 | -0.24 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1987 | #102 | Derrick Beasley | DEF | -0.59 | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1988 | #69 | Tom Rehder | OFF | +0.08 | -0.54 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1983 | #118 | Smiley Creswell | DEF | -0.59 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1985 | #108 | Gerard Phelan | OFF | -0.58 | -0.22 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1988 | #115 | Troy Wolkow | OFF | -0.54 | -0.36 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1986 | #26 | Reggie Dupard | OFF | -0.05 | -0.45 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.72 |
| 1989 | #16 | Hart Lee Dykes | OFF | -0.32 | -0.37 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.82 |
| 1984 | #70 | Jon Williams | OFF | -0.54 | -0.34 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1989 | #43 | Eric Coleman | DEF | -0.42 | -0.51 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 1984 | #43 | Ed Williams | DEF | +0.17 | -0.72 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.89 |
| 1986 | #42 | Mike Ruth | DEF | -0.62 | -0.53 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.99 |
| 1987 | #113 | Danny Villa | OFF | -0.25 | +0.01 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.43 | -0.28 | -1.07 |
| 1983 | #47 | Darryal Wilson | OFF | -0.62 | -0.53 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.12 |
| 1985 | #102 | Tom Toth | OFF | -0.82 | -0.61 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.22 |
| 1985 | #56 | Ben Thomas | DEF | -0.70 | -0.76 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | -1.40 |
| 1985 | #84 | Audray McMillian | DEF | -1.49 | -1.05 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | -2.38 |
| 1986 | #54 | Vencie Glenn | DEF | -1.72 | -1.39 | — | -1.31 | — | -0.38 | -0.25 | -3.18 |
| 1985 | #28 | Trevor Matich | OFF | -1.81 | -1.91 | — | -1.96 | — | -1.53 | -0.89 | -5.03 |
| 1987 | #98 | Rich Gannon | OFF | -3.32 | -2.75 | — | -3.27 | — | -1.02 | -0.27 | -6.95 |
| 1984 | #1 | Irving Fryar | OFF | -0.68 | -0.84 | — | -2.43 | — | -12.26 | -13.94 | -16.29 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.