Mike Lynn
MIN · Composite skill θ = +0.38 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.31 to +1.06
Evidence: 70 mapped picks across 11 draft classes, 1980–1990 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.01
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1990MINGM 1974-1990; Hershel Walker trade era; departed for WLAF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | #19 | Randall McDaniel | OFF | +15.21 |
| 1983 | #19 | Joey Browner | DEF | +9.16 |
| 1983 | #186 | Carl Lee | DEF | +6.87 |
| 1982 | #179 | Steve Jordan | OFF | +6.16 |
| 1985 | #4 | Chris Doleman | DEF | +3.38 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #142 | Steve Bono | OFF | -4.70 |
| 1986 | #93 | Joe Phillips | DEF | -4.39 |
| 1986 | #14 | Gerald Robinson | DEF | -3.24 |
| 1982 | #92 | Jim Fahnhorst | DEF | -2.68 |
| 1982 | #7 | Darrin Nelson | OFF | -2.38 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 70 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1988 | #19 | Randall McDaniel | OFF | +1.65 | +2.48 | — | +4.11 | — | +4.92 | +13.16 | +15.21 |
| 1983 | #19 | Joey Browner | DEF | +1.27 | +1.41 | — | +2.05 | — | +5.66 | +5.88 | +9.16 |
| 1983 | #186 | Carl Lee | DEF | +2.14 | +2.57 | — | +2.03 | — | +3.03 | +1.94 | +6.87 |
| 1982 | #179 | Steve Jordan | OFF | +1.99 | +2.43 | — | +1.03 | — | +6.09 | -0.26 | +6.16 |
| 1985 | #4 | Chris Doleman | DEF | +0.38 | +0.76 | — | +1.32 | — | +1.83 | +1.16 | +3.38 |
| 1984 | #13 | Keith Millard | DEF | -0.27 | -0.08 | — | +0.79 | — | +1.36 | +3.94 | +3.27 |
| 1981 | #74 | Tim Irwin | OFF | +1.77 | +2.64 | — | +1.53 | — | -1.75 | -1.05 | +2.34 |
| 1987 | #72 | Henry Thomas | DEF | +0.19 | +1.12 | — | +0.84 | — | +1.35 | -0.45 | +1.95 |
| 1986 | #120 | Hassan Jones | OFF | +1.28 | +0.84 | — | +0.84 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +1.83 |
| 1988 | #71 | Al Noga | DEF | +0.71 | +0.88 | — | +0.68 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | +1.43 |
| 1980 | #92 | Dennis Johnson | DEF | +0.85 | +0.68 | — | +0.69 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.41 |
| 1984 | #67 | Alfred Anderson | OFF | +1.24 | +1.05 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.24 | -0.11 | +1.15 |
| 1988 | #124 | Darrell Fullington | DEF | +0.63 | +0.20 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.71 |
| 1982 | #39 | Terry Tausch | OFF | +0.43 | +0.54 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.33 | -0.15 | +0.66 |
| 1988 | #108 | Todd Kalis | OFF | +0.69 | +0.33 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.61 |
| 1987 | #100 | Najee Mustafaa | DEF | +0.23 | +0.45 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | +0.39 |
| 1984 | #140 | Allen Rice | OFF | +1.00 | -0.22 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.36 |
| 1980 | #30 | Willie Teal | DEF | +0.30 | +0.40 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.39 | -0.21 | +0.35 |
| 1986 | #179 | Carl Hilton | OFF | +0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 1983 | #159 | Mike Jones | OFF | +0.27 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.22 |
| 1980 | #9 | Doug Martin | DEF | +0.85 | +0.59 | — | +0.41 | — | -1.32 | -0.55 | +0.20 |
| 1987 | #44 | Ray Berry | DEF | +0.70 | -0.14 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | +0.09 |
| 1981 | #101 | John Swain | DEF | +0.12 | -0.04 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.06 |
| 1980 | #174 | Henry Johnson | DEF | +0.50 | -0.23 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1988 | #183 | Brad Beckman | OFF | -0.43 | -0.07 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1985 | #115 | Mark MacDonald | OFF | +0.34 | -0.29 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1985 | #164 | Tim Newton | DEF | +0.23 | -0.11 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| 1989 | #191 | Benji Roland | DEF | -0.34 | +0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1989 | #108 | Darryl Ingram | OFF | -0.20 | -0.18 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1984 | #180 | John Haines | DEF | -0.24 | -0.06 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1984 | #154 | Dwight Collins | OFF | -0.10 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1980 | #68 | Brent Boyd | OFF | +0.20 | -0.26 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| 1988 | #164 | Derrick White | DEF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1980 | #148 | Ray Yakavonis | DEF | -0.12 | -0.19 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1985 | #59 | Kirk Lowdermilk | OFF | +0.48 | +0.43 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.90 | -0.53 | -0.31 |
| 1987 | #156 | Greg Richardson | OFF | -0.39 | -0.07 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1990 | #104 | Alonzo Hampton | DEF | -0.30 | -0.20 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1990 | #188 | John Levelis | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1981 | #45 | Robin Sendlein | DEF | +0.38 | -0.42 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| 1986 | #147 | Thomas Rooks | OFF | -0.50 | -0.06 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1981 | #184 | Don Shaver | OFF | -0.51 | -0.06 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1990 | #54 | Mike Jones | OFF | -0.12 | -0.47 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1990 | #116 | Reggie Thornton | OFF | -0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1985 | #85 | Buster Rhymes | OFF | -0.17 | -0.30 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1985 | #106 | Kyle Morrell | DEF | -0.48 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1989 | #163 | Jeff Mickel | OFF | -0.42 | -0.24 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1984 | #196 | Loyd Lewis | OFF | -0.42 | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1980 | #121 | Doug Paschal | OFF | -0.28 | -0.21 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 1981 | #123 | Wendell Ray | DEF | -0.61 | -0.23 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1990 | #74 | Marion Hobby | DEF | -0.63 | -0.29 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 1983 | #127 | Mark Stewart | DEF | -0.56 | -0.29 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1980 | #122 | Paul Jones | OFF | -0.67 | -0.21 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.75 |
| 1983 | #100 | Mark Rush | OFF | -0.67 | -0.23 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 1985 | #30 | Issiac Holt | DEF | -0.12 | -0.35 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.76 |
| 1989 | #80 | John Hunter | OFF | -0.64 | -0.48 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.93 |
| 1981 | #52 | Jarvis Redwine | OFF | -0.25 | -0.46 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.94 |
| 1987 | #14 | D.J. Dozier | OFF | -0.12 | -0.52 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.94 |
| 1983 | #73 | Walker Lee Ashley | DEF | +0.46 | -0.98 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -1.05 |
| 1982 | #147 | Greg Storr | DEF | -0.83 | -0.43 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 1981 | #39 | Mardye McDole | OFF | -0.29 | -0.60 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.10 |
| 1985 | #60 | Tim Meamber | DEF | -0.74 | -0.51 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.12 |
| 1985 | #66 | Tim Long | OFF | -0.74 | -0.59 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.15 |
| 1990 | #131 | Cedric Smith | OFF | -0.74 | -0.57 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.36 |
| 1989 | #52 | David Braxton | DEF | -0.92 | -0.69 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.48 |
| 1988 | #54 | Brad Edwards | DEF | -0.96 | -0.98 | — | -0.85 | — | -0.23 | -0.15 | -2.01 |
| 1982 | #7 | Darrin Nelson | OFF | +0.69 | -0.32 | — | -0.11 | — | -3.12 | -1.79 | -2.38 |
| 1982 | #92 | Jim Fahnhorst | DEF | -1.60 | -1.14 | — | -1.11 | — | -0.25 | -0.15 | -2.68 |
| 1986 | #14 | Gerald Robinson | DEF | -1.44 | -1.50 | — | -1.43 | — | -0.47 | -0.21 | -3.24 |
| 1986 | #93 | Joe Phillips | DEF | -1.83 | -1.93 | — | -1.98 | — | -0.69 | -0.37 | -4.39 |
| 1985 | #142 | Steve Bono | OFF | -2.38 | -1.94 | — | -2.24 | — | -0.48 | -0.11 | -4.70 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.