Frank Gilliam
MIN · Composite skill θ = -0.08 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.80 to +0.63
Evidence: 66 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 1994–2001 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.18
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–2001MINVP Player Personnel; Headrick/McCombs era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | #173 | Matt Birk | OFF | +5.10 |
| 1998 | #21 | Randy Moss | OFF | +4.48 |
| 1999 | #11 | Daunte Culpepper | OFF | +3.39 |
| 1995 | #24 | Korey Stringer | OFF | +3.13 |
| 1995 | #42 | Orlando Thomas | DEF | +2.19 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #18 | Dewayne Washington | DEF | -2.65 |
| 1996 | #16 | Duane Clemons | DEF | -2.36 |
| 2000 | #55 | Fred Robbins | DEF | -2.21 |
| 1994 | #19 | Todd Steussie | OFF | -1.83 |
| 2000 | #118 | Tyrone Carter | DEF | -1.73 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 66 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1998 | #173 | Matt Birk | OFF | +0.93 | +1.23 | — | +1.16 | — | +6.13 | -0.41 | +5.10 |
| 1998 | #21 | Randy Moss | OFF | -0.38 | +0.30 | — | +1.50 | — | +1.63 | +4.42 | +4.48 |
| 1999 | #11 | Daunte Culpepper | OFF | +0.05 | +0.37 | — | +1.97 | — | +2.57 | -0.15 | +3.39 |
| 1995 | #24 | Korey Stringer | OFF | +1.19 | +1.49 | — | +1.31 | — | +1.00 | -0.05 | +3.13 |
| 1995 | #42 | Orlando Thomas | DEF | +1.22 | +1.57 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +2.19 |
| 1999 | #185 | Talance Sawyer | DEF | +0.63 | +0.92 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.41 |
| 1994 | #179 | Andrew Jordan | OFF | +1.11 | +0.45 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.76 |
| 1995 | #11 | Derrick Alexander | DEF | +0.43 | +0.52 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.69 |
| 2001 | #69 | Eric Kelly | DEF | +0.52 | +0.31 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.57 |
| 1997 | #151 | Tony Williams | DEF | +0.22 | +0.41 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.47 |
| 1997 | #235 | Matthew Hatchette | OFF | +0.54 | -0.14 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 2000 | #244 | Giles Cole | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 1994 | #55 | Fernando Smith | DEF | +0.08 | +0.05 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.14 |
| 1999 | #236 | Noel Scarlett | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1995 | #232 | Jose White | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1997 | #20 | Dwayne Rudd | DEF | +0.11 | +0.11 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | +0.06 |
| 1997 | #78 | Stalin Colinet | DEF | +0.07 | +0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 1998 | #225 | Tony Darden | DEF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1997 | #113 | Antonio Banks | DEF | +0.09 | -0.12 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1994 | #211 | Pete Bercich | DEF | +0.62 | -0.32 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 1995 | #111 | Chad May | OFF | -0.17 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2000 | #248 | Lewis Kelly | OFF | -0.02 | -0.12 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1996 | #75 | Moe Williams | OFF | +1.16 | -0.87 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.32 | -0.20 | -0.08 |
| 2001 | #189 | Carey Scott | DEF | -0.31 | +0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2000 | #88 | Doug Chapman | OFF | +0.04 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1995 | #157 | James Stewart | OFF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1998 | #80 | Ramos McDonald | DEF | -0.11 | -0.13 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1998 | #110 | Kivuusama Mays | DEF | +0.08 | -0.23 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2000 | #240 | Mike Malano | OFF | -0.25 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 1996 | #148 | Sean Boyd | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1996 | #223 | Jon Merrill | OFF | -0.27 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 1998 | #208 | Chester Burnett | DEF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1999 | #199 | Antico Dalton | DEF | -0.34 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1998 | #144 | Kerry Cooks | DEF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2001 | #225 | Brian Crawford | OFF | -0.27 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 2001 | #130 | Shawn Worthen | DEF | -0.35 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1996 | #97 | Hunter Goodwin | OFF | +0.55 | -0.17 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| 1994 | #134 | Shelly Hammonds | DEF | -0.42 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1995 | #189 | John Solomon | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2001 | #131 | Cedric James | OFF | -0.32 | -0.09 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2000 | #25 | Chris Hovan | DEF | -0.03 | +0.37 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.41 | -0.21 | -0.33 |
| 2000 | #106 | Antonio Wilson | DEF | -0.21 | -0.22 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1999 | #169 | Chris Jones | DEF | -0.44 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1994 | #40 | David Palmer | OFF | +0.88 | -0.73 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.36 |
| 1999 | #44 | Jim Kleinsasser | OFF | +1.85 | +1.54 | — | -1.18 | — | -1.10 | -0.65 | -0.36 |
| 2001 | #27 | Michael Bennett | OFF | -0.36 | -0.15 | — | -0.15 | — | +0.36 | -0.45 | -0.45 |
| 1997 | #49 | Torrian Gray | DEF | -0.11 | -0.33 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 1997 | #183 | Robert Tate | DEF | +0.25 | -0.28 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.48 |
| 1999 | #120 | Kenny Wright | DEF | -0.16 | -0.11 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.50 |
| 1999 | #125 | Jay Humphrey | OFF | -0.47 | -0.30 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1995 | #55 | Corey Fuller | DEF | -0.19 | +0.23 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.28 | -0.21 | -0.58 |
| 2001 | #157 | Patrick Chukwurah | DEF | -0.22 | -0.34 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.61 |
| 2001 | #57 | Willie Howard | DEF | -0.48 | -0.37 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1998 | #51 | Kailee Wong | DEF | -0.16 | -0.11 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.23 | -0.17 | -0.71 |
| 2000 | #56 | Michael Boireau | DEF | -0.68 | -0.37 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 1996 | #45 | James Manley | DEF | -0.72 | -0.44 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.95 |
| 2000 | #165 | Troy Walters | OFF | -0.53 | -0.55 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.12 |
| 1999 | #29 | Dimitrius Underwood | DEF | -0.82 | -0.59 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.22 |
| 1995 | #243 | Jason Fisk | DEF | -0.37 | -0.77 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -1.41 |
| 1994 | #125 | Mike Wells | DEF | -1.06 | -0.63 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.43 |
| 1997 | #220 | Artie Ulmer | DEF | -1.17 | -0.73 | — | -0.74 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.73 |
| 2000 | #118 | Tyrone Carter | DEF | -0.64 | -0.68 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.20 | -0.17 | -1.73 |
| 1994 | #19 | Todd Steussie | OFF | -0.22 | +0.38 | — | +0.08 | — | -2.28 | -1.71 | -1.83 |
| 2000 | #55 | Fred Robbins | DEF | -0.83 | -0.63 | — | -1.10 | — | -0.49 | -0.27 | -2.21 |
| 1996 | #16 | Duane Clemons | DEF | -0.55 | -1.26 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.49 | -0.25 | -2.36 |
| 1994 | #18 | Dewayne Washington | DEF | -0.89 | -0.38 | — | -0.97 | — | -1.14 | -0.93 | -2.65 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.