Don Shula
MIA · Composite skill θ = +0.12 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.51 to +0.75
Composite θ
+0.12
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.51–+0.75
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
65%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 110 mapped picks across 16 draft classes, 1980–1995 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1995MIAHC + de facto draft head; entire MIA tenure 1980-1995 (retired Jan 1996)
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | #27 | Dan Marino | OFF | +14.68 |
| 1980 | #48 | Dwight Stephenson | OFF | +9.64 |
| 1990 | #9 | Richmond Webb | OFF | +6.73 |
| 1986 | #52 | John Offerdahl | DEF | +4.89 |
| 1982 | #52 | Mark Duper | OFF | +4.68 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | #7 | Troy Vincent | DEF | -7.62 |
| 1992 | #191 | Dave Moore | OFF | -4.69 |
| 1992 | #12 | Marco Coleman | DEF | -4.34 |
| 1993 | #132 | Chris Gray | OFF | -4.06 |
| 1993 | #105 | Ronnie Bradford | DEF | -2.52 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 110 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1983 | #27 | Dan Marino | OFF | +2.45 | +3.65 | — | +6.04 | — | +5.46 | +5.73 | +14.68 |
| 1980 | #48 | Dwight Stephenson | OFF | +1.24 | +1.10 | — | +2.77 | — | +2.95 | +8.45 | +9.64 |
| 1990 | #9 | Richmond Webb | OFF | +1.20 | +1.80 | — | +2.60 | — | +2.88 | +2.39 | +6.73 |
| 1986 | #52 | John Offerdahl | DEF | +0.69 | +1.30 | — | +1.34 | — | +3.08 | +2.03 | +4.89 |
| 1982 | #52 | Mark Duper | OFF | +1.43 | +2.13 | — | +2.49 | — | +1.27 | -0.44 | +4.68 |
| 1994 | #65 | Tim Ruddy | OFF | +2.07 | +2.44 | — | +1.95 | — | +0.81 | -0.18 | +4.51 |
| 1994 | #20 | Tim Bowens | DEF | +1.65 | +2.46 | — | +1.68 | — | +0.44 | -0.34 | +3.78 |
| 1990 | #39 | Keith Sims | OFF | +0.66 | +1.15 | — | +1.35 | — | +1.50 | -0.42 | +2.79 |
| 1986 | #81 | T.J. Turner | DEF | +1.40 | +1.65 | — | +1.05 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | +2.53 |
| 1993 | #25 | O.J. McDuffie | OFF | +1.35 | +0.97 | — | +1.09 | — | -0.25 | -0.13 | +2.06 |
| 1988 | #73 | Ferrell Edmunds | OFF | +0.49 | +0.85 | — | +0.21 | — | +2.10 | -0.04 | +1.91 |
| 1988 | #42 | Jarvis Williams | DEF | +1.00 | +1.42 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +1.90 |
| 1989 | #25 | Louis Oliver | DEF | +1.04 | +1.24 | — | +0.90 | — | -0.24 | -0.15 | +1.85 |
| 1985 | #167 | Ron Davenport | OFF | +1.15 | +0.30 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.36 |
| 1991 | #113 | Bryan Cox | DEF | -0.24 | +0.56 | — | +0.38 | — | +1.83 | -0.29 | +1.31 |
| 1992 | #97 | Dwight Hollier | DEF | +1.50 | +0.49 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.14 | -0.10 | +1.21 |
| 1981 | #56 | Andra Franklin | OFF | +0.15 | +0.48 | — | +0.34 | — | +1.02 | -0.03 | +1.15 |
| 1982 | #170 | Dan Johnson | OFF | +0.86 | +0.60 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.12 |
| 1985 | #27 | Lorenzo Hampton | OFF | +0.75 | +0.30 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.95 |
| 1982 | #108 | Charles Bowser | DEF | +0.29 | +0.56 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.90 |
| 1982 | #80 | Paul Lankford | DEF | +1.37 | +0.69 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.36 | -0.22 | +0.81 |
| 1994 | #214 | Sean Hill | DEF | +0.79 | +0.22 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.81 |
| 1987 | #99 | Troy Stradford | OFF | +0.36 | +0.06 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.79 |
| 1989 | #121 | Jeff Uhlenhake | OFF | +0.19 | +0.57 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.72 |
| 1991 | #191 | Chris Green | DEF | +0.87 | +0.09 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.70 |
| 1982 | #24 | Roy Foster | OFF | +0.68 | +0.33 | — | +0.57 | — | +0.11 | -1.14 | +0.56 |
| 1988 | #126 | Rodney Thomas | DEF | +0.53 | -0.07 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.32 |
| 1981 | #138 | Tommy Vigorito | OFF | +0.24 | -0.10 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 1980 | #185 | Joe Rose | OFF | +0.82 | -0.69 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.29 |
| 1980 | #75 | Bill Barnett | DEF | +0.89 | -0.34 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.28 |
| 1985 | #65 | George Little | DEF | +0.22 | +0.14 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 1986 | #107 | James Pruitt | OFF | +0.45 | -0.36 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.09 |
| 1995 | #233 | Corey Swinson | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1995 | #246 | Shannon Myers | OFF | -0.21 | +0.12 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1981 | #154 | Fulton Walker | DEF | +0.56 | -0.30 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 1984 | #109 | Joe Carter | OFF | +0.10 | -0.13 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 1987 | #182 | Tom Brown | OFF | -0.17 | +0.22 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 1995 | #194 | Jeff Kopp | DEF | -0.01 | -0.05 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 1994 | #147 | William Gaines | DEF | -0.23 | -0.04 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| 1984 | #138 | Dean May | OFF | -0.20 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 1986 | #193 | Larry Kolic | DEF | -0.08 | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1990 | #66 | Alfred Oglesby | DEF | -0.11 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1993 | #164 | Robert O'Neal | DEF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1994 | #54 | Aubrey Beavers | DEF | +0.00 | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.22 |
| 1993 | #191 | David Merritt | DEF | -0.31 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1987 | #56 | Scott Schwedes | OFF | +0.26 | -0.39 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| 1992 | #155 | Roosevelt Collins | DEF | -0.24 | -0.13 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1986 | #163 | Brent Sowell | DEF | -0.44 | -0.06 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.29 |
| 1985 | #91 | Mike Smith | DEF | +0.06 | -0.30 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1984 | #14 | Jackie Shipp | DEF | +0.40 | -0.04 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.32 |
| 1988 | #153 | Melvin Bratton | OFF | -0.46 | -0.02 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1988 | #156 | George Cooper | OFF | -0.46 | -0.02 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1982 | #192 | Larry Cowan | OFF | -0.43 | -0.03 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1981 | #126 | Ken Poole | DEF | -0.22 | -0.22 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1990 | #137 | Leroy Holt | OFF | -0.48 | -0.04 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1986 | #136 | Kevin Wyatt | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1981 | #96 | Brad Wright | OFF | -0.37 | -0.14 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.43 |
| 1982 | #164 | Ron Hester | DEF | -0.38 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1989 | #176 | Jim Zdelar | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1982 | #161 | Tom Tutson | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1984 | #53 | Jay Brophy | DEF | -0.14 | -0.27 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 1985 | #145 | George Shorthose | OFF | -0.49 | -0.12 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1982 | #136 | Rich Diana | OFF | -0.38 | -0.14 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1981 | #152 | Mack Moore | DEF | -0.19 | -0.28 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1980 | #100 | Elmer Bailey | OFF | +0.03 | -0.33 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1983 | #76 | Charles Benson | DEF | -0.14 | -0.36 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1983 | #195 | Keith Woetzel | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1984 | #194 | Bernard Carvalho | OFF | -0.43 | -0.24 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1989 | #147 | Wes Pritchett | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1987 | #155 | Lance Sellers | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1984 | #165 | Rowland Tatum | DEF | -0.56 | -0.18 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1989 | #9 | Sammie Smith | OFF | -0.05 | +0.01 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.56 |
| 1980 | #158 | Eugene Byrd | OFF | -0.55 | -0.17 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1989 | #92 | David Holmes | DEF | -0.59 | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1987 | #16 | John Bosa | DEF | -0.22 | -0.25 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 1994 | #112 | Ronnie Woolfork | DEF | -0.58 | -0.23 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1987 | #132 | Chris Conlin | OFF | -0.44 | -0.33 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1992 | #124 | Christopher Perez | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1983 | #167 | Reggie Roby | ST | +0.51 | -2.01 | — | -1.17 | — | +1.35 | +1.25 | -0.62 |
| 1981 | #179 | Mike Daum | OFF | -0.51 | -0.31 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1985 | #111 | Jeff Dellenbach | OFF | +0.67 | +0.01 | — | -0.15 | — | -1.06 | -0.77 | -0.73 |
| 1985 | #83 | Alex Moyer | DEF | -0.44 | -0.40 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 1987 | #43 | Rick Graf | DEF | -0.32 | -0.26 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.80 |
| 1988 | #99 | Greg Johnson | OFF | -0.57 | -0.41 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 1981 | #84 | Sam Greene | OFF | -0.73 | -0.37 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 1995 | #25 | Billy Milner | OFF | -0.38 | -0.60 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.97 |
| 1995 | #53 | Andrew Greene | OFF | -0.56 | -0.56 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.98 |
| 1983 | #55 | Mike Charles | DEF | -0.39 | -0.40 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.26 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| 1988 | #16 | Eric Kumerow | DEF | +0.06 | -0.82 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.01 |
| 1990 | #151 | Sean Vanhorse | DEF | -0.83 | -0.43 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.01 |
| 1992 | #43 | Eddie Blake | DEF | -0.75 | -0.47 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.01 |
| 1980 | #21 | Don McNeal | DEF | +0.55 | -0.46 | — | -0.29 | — | -1.12 | -0.65 | -1.13 |
| 1985 | #195 | Fuad Reveiz | ST | -0.38 | -0.84 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.16 | -0.15 | -1.15 |
| 1993 | #78 | Terry Kirby | OFF | -0.80 | -0.70 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.32 | -0.19 | -1.20 |
| 1995 | #122 | Pete Mitchell | OFF | -1.12 | -0.70 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.36 |
| 1988 | #180 | Kerwin Bell | OFF | -0.88 | -0.57 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -1.37 |
| 1991 | #23 | Randal Hill | OFF | -0.62 | -0.90 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -1.62 |
| 1981 | #13 | David Overstreet | OFF | -0.79 | -0.94 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.17 | -0.07 | -1.81 |
| 1991 | #121 | Gene Williams | OFF | -0.96 | -1.05 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -1.99 |
| 1995 | #158 | Norman Hand | DEF | -1.20 | -0.94 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -2.01 |
| 1991 | #60 | Aaron Craver | OFF | -0.85 | -1.04 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.29 | -0.16 | -2.07 |
| 1992 | #70 | Larry Webster | DEF | -0.81 | -0.98 | — | -1.01 | — | -0.29 | -0.15 | -2.13 |
| 1994 | #177 | Brant Boyer | DEF | -1.13 | -1.00 | — | -0.98 | — | -0.10 | -0.08 | -2.14 |
| 1982 | #120 | Bob Nelson | DEF | -1.43 | -0.95 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -2.19 |
| 1990 | #93 | Scott Mitchell | OFF | -1.01 | -1.18 | — | -1.17 | — | -0.28 | -0.06 | -2.43 |
| 1993 | #105 | Ronnie Bradford | DEF | -1.57 | -1.10 | — | -1.04 | — | -0.16 | -0.12 | -2.52 |
| 1993 | #132 | Chris Gray | OFF | -1.69 | -1.63 | — | -1.82 | — | -0.62 | -0.53 | -4.06 |
| 1992 | #12 | Marco Coleman | DEF | -1.43 | -0.92 | — | -1.53 | — | -2.04 | -1.23 | -4.34 |
| 1992 | #191 | Dave Moore | OFF | -2.60 | -2.02 | — | -2.02 | — | -0.41 | -0.31 | -4.69 |
| 1992 | #7 | Troy Vincent | DEF | -1.89 | -1.50 | — | -2.27 | — | -3.59 | -3.73 | -7.62 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.