Edgar Kaiser/staff
DEN · Composite skill θ = +0.46 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.32 to +1.23
Evidence: 30 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1980–1984 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.16
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1984DENPre-Beake era; ownership-driven personnel under Edgar Kaiser; diffuse
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #42 | Rulon Jones | DEF | +5.19 |
| 1982 | #131 | Sammy Winder | OFF | +3.61 |
| 1980 | #157 | Keith Bishop | OFF | +3.26 |
| 1981 | #15 | Dennis Smith | DEF | +2.88 |
| 1984 | #186 | Clarence Kay | OFF | +2.48 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #98 | Mark Herrmann | OFF | -3.40 |
| 1983 | #31 | Mark Cooper | OFF | -1.37 |
| 1982 | #50 | Orlando McDaniel | OFF | -1.19 |
| 1981 | #42 | Clay Brown | OFF | -1.18 |
| 1980 | #74 | Larry Carter | DEF | -1.01 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 30 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1980 | #42 | Rulon Jones | DEF | +1.38 | +1.37 | — | +1.92 | — | +1.78 | +2.00 | +5.19 |
| 1982 | #131 | Sammy Winder | OFF | +1.65 | +1.42 | — | +1.15 | — | +1.97 | -0.11 | +3.61 |
| 1980 | #157 | Keith Bishop | OFF | +1.50 | +1.12 | — | +1.04 | — | +1.95 | -0.13 | +3.26 |
| 1981 | #15 | Dennis Smith | DEF | +1.37 | +1.99 | — | +1.53 | — | +2.40 | -3.06 | +2.88 |
| 1984 | #186 | Clarence Kay | OFF | +1.97 | +2.65 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +2.48 |
| 1981 | #125 | Ken Lanier | OFF | +1.66 | +2.38 | — | +1.21 | — | -1.01 | -0.65 | +2.40 |
| 1980 | #131 | Mike Harden | DEF | +1.20 | +1.34 | — | +0.99 | — | -0.37 | -0.24 | +1.95 |
| 1984 | #46 | Andre Townsend | DEF | +1.29 | +0.62 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | +1.46 |
| 1981 | #181 | Steve Busick | DEF | +0.79 | +0.75 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.37 |
| 1984 | #78 | Tony Lilly | DEF | +0.70 | +0.05 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.62 |
| 1984 | #89 | Randy Robbins | DEF | +1.32 | -0.32 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.19 | -0.12 | +0.35 |
| 1983 | #60 | Clint Sampson | OFF | +0.65 | -0.17 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 1983 | #172 | Myron Dupree | DEF | -0.09 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1982 | #21 | Gerald Willhite | OFF | +0.45 | -0.54 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.38 | -0.17 | -0.20 |
| 1980 | #107 | Rick Parros | OFF | -0.20 | +0.10 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.21 | -0.10 | -0.30 |
| 1982 | #189 | Alvin Ruben | DEF | -0.45 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.33 |
| 1980 | #136 | Laval Short | DEF | -0.24 | -0.22 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1984 | #159 | Aaron Smith | DEF | -0.33 | -0.20 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1983 | #143 | Victor Heflin | DEF | -0.54 | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1983 | #125 | Bruce Baldwin | DEF | -0.58 | -0.22 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1981 | #151 | Alvin Lewis | OFF | -0.58 | -0.12 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1980 | #184 | John Havekost | OFF | -0.52 | -0.32 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1982 | #106 | Dan Plater | OFF | -0.64 | -0.27 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 1983 | #116 | George Harris | DEF | -0.69 | -0.32 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 1983 | #4 | Chris Hinton | OFF | -2.90 | -2.97 | — | +1.27 | — | +2.92 | -1.31 | -0.86 |
| 1980 | #74 | Larry Carter | DEF | -0.80 | -0.45 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.01 |
| 1981 | #42 | Clay Brown | OFF | -0.89 | -0.67 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.07 | -0.02 | -1.18 |
| 1982 | #50 | Orlando McDaniel | OFF | -0.77 | -0.53 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.19 |
| 1983 | #31 | Mark Cooper | OFF | -0.06 | -0.89 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.22 | -0.10 | -1.37 |
| 1981 | #98 | Mark Herrmann | OFF | -1.83 | -1.44 | — | -1.50 | — | -0.46 | -0.08 | -3.40 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.