Bobby Beathard
WAS · LAC · Composite skill θ = -0.01 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.62 to +0.59
Composite θ
-0.01
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.62–+0.59
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
48%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Average
directional only
Evidence: 155 mapped picks across 21 draft classes, 1980–2000 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.02
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1989WASHOF GM; led Redskins to 3 Super Bowls
- 1990–2000LACHOF GM; San Diego era 1990-2000
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #69 | Russ Grimm | OFF | +8.53 |
| 1983 | #84 | Charles Mann | DEF | +6.37 |
| 1981 | #119 | Dexter Manley | DEF | +4.74 |
| 1990 | #5 | Junior Seau | DEF | +3.34 |
| 1983 | #28 | Darrell Green | DEF | +3.05 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | #33 | Marquez Pope | DEF | -3.08 |
| 1991 | #90 | Yancey Thigpen | OFF | -2.65 |
| 1999 | #69 | Steve Heiden | OFF | -2.56 |
| 1993 | #22 | Darrien Gordon | DEF | -2.15 |
| 1990 | #172 | Jeff Novak | OFF | -2.00 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 155 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #69 | Russ Grimm | OFF | +1.31 | +1.40 | — | +2.34 | — | +3.61 | +6.05 | +8.53 |
| 1983 | #84 | Charles Mann | DEF | +1.75 | +2.36 | — | +2.51 | — | +3.84 | -0.25 | +6.37 |
| 1981 | #119 | Dexter Manley | DEF | +1.13 | +1.77 | — | +1.90 | — | +0.78 | +2.01 | +4.74 |
| 1990 | #5 | Junior Seau | DEF | +0.11 | +1.12 | — | +2.16 | — | +0.24 | +0.89 | +3.34 |
| 1983 | #28 | Darrell Green | DEF | +2.57 | +3.23 | — | +2.11 | — | -0.17 | -3.76 | +3.05 |
| 1987 | #164 | Ed Simmons | OFF | +1.73 | +1.50 | — | +0.97 | — | -0.20 | -0.13 | +2.42 |
| 1986 | #75 | Alvin Walton | DEF | +0.98 | +1.19 | — | +0.81 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.86 |
| 1993 | #64 | Joe Cocozzo | OFF | +1.20 | +0.80 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.64 |
| 1994 | #145 | Rodney Harrison | DEF | +0.31 | +0.63 | — | -0.06 | — | +0.63 | +1.66 | +1.56 |
| 1982 | #49 | Vernon Dean | DEF | +0.80 | +0.73 | — | +0.83 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | +1.48 |
| 1990 | #187 | Nate Lewis | OFF | +0.87 | +0.61 | — | +0.70 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.43 |
| 1991 | #47 | Eric Moten | OFF | +0.67 | +0.87 | — | +0.61 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.33 |
| 1996 | #114 | Charlie Jones | OFF | +0.84 | +0.62 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.22 |
| 1994 | #63 | Vaughn Parker | OFF | +0.99 | +1.31 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.43 | -0.28 | +1.20 |
| 1997 | #109 | Raleigh Roundtree | OFF | +0.80 | +0.62 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.15 |
| 1999 | #139 | Adrian Dingle | DEF | +1.09 | +0.38 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.12 |
| 1995 | #200 | Tony Berti | OFF | +0.49 | +0.69 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.00 |
| 1993 | #99 | Lewis Bush | DEF | +0.85 | +0.69 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.19 | -0.15 | +0.86 |
| 2000 | #113 | Leonardo Carson | DEF | +0.51 | +0.42 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.84 |
| 1992 | #23 | Chris Mims | DEF | +0.77 | +0.37 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.19 | -0.08 | +0.79 |
| 1989 | #149 | A.J. Johnson | DEF | +0.85 | +0.17 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.78 |
| 1995 | #197 | Craig Whelihan | OFF | +0.48 | +0.61 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.78 |
| 1997 | #45 | Freddie Jones | OFF | +0.43 | +0.76 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | +0.69 |
| 1993 | #161 | Eric Castle | DEF | +0.90 | -0.01 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 1997 | #138 | Kenny Bynum | OFF | +0.84 | +0.12 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 1995 | #237 | Mark Montreuil | DEF | +0.61 | +0.12 | — | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.57 |
| 1988 | #55 | Chip Lohmiller | ST | +1.14 | -0.84 | — | +0.05 | — | +0.85 | -0.18 | +0.53 |
| 1986 | #30 | Markus Koch | DEF | +0.57 | +0.13 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | +0.50 |
| 2000 | #43 | Rogers Beckett | DEF | +0.41 | +0.32 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.49 |
| 1991 | #127 | Floyd Fields | DEF | +0.25 | +0.32 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.48 |
| 1991 | #123 | Duane Young | OFF | +0.53 | +1.06 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.47 |
| 1995 | #51 | Terrell Fletcher | OFF | +1.35 | -0.51 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.19 | -0.11 | +0.46 |
| 1997 | #237 | Tony Corbin | OFF | +0.09 | +0.28 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 1993 | #95 | Raylee Johnson | DEF | +1.47 | -0.05 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.29 | -0.16 | +0.37 |
| 1994 | #70 | Andre Coleman | OFF | +0.45 | -0.02 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2000 | #205 | JaJuan Seider | OFF | +0.03 | +0.23 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 1999 | #104 | Jason Perry | DEF | +0.23 | +0.04 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 1993 | #41 | Natrone Means | OFF | +0.04 | +0.13 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.23 | -0.13 | +0.28 |
| 1994 | #82 | Willie Clark | DEF | +0.45 | -0.10 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 1982 | #99 | Todd Liebenstein | DEF | +0.04 | +0.16 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 1983 | #196 | Kelvin Bryant | OFF | +0.06 | -0.40 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.19 |
| 1989 | #66 | Tracy Rocker | DEF | -0.09 | +0.13 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1996 | #231 | Freddie Bradley | OFF | -0.02 | +0.17 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 1985 | #177 | Jamie Harris | ST | -0.44 | +0.25 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 1995 | #177 | Troy Sienkiewicz | OFF | +0.33 | -0.02 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 1986 | #146 | Mark Rypien | OFF | -0.80 | -0.15 | — | -0.16 | — | +1.66 | -0.13 | +0.12 |
| 1992 | #147 | Reggie White | DEF | +0.12 | -0.05 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 1997 | #146 | Paul Bradford | DEF | -0.04 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 1988 | #109 | Jamie Morris | OFF | +0.11 | +0.06 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 1993 | #188 | Doug Miller | DEF | +0.15 | -0.06 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 1990 | #143 | Frank Cornish | OFF | +0.12 | +0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 1992 | #140 | Eric Jonassen | OFF | +0.33 | -0.21 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 1996 | #41 | Bryan Still | OFF | +0.44 | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 1980 | #55 | Mat Mendenhall | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1998 | #234 | Kio Sanford | OFF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2000 | #111 | Trevor Gaylor | OFF | +0.02 | -0.01 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1997 | #218 | Toran James | DEF | -0.01 | -0.01 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1987 | #117 | Timmy Smith | OFF | -0.05 | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1987 | #144 | Steve Gage | DEF | +0.01 | -0.06 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 1998 | #59 | Mikhael Ricks | OFF | -0.07 | +0.11 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 1980 | #18 | Art Monk | OFF | +1.38 | +1.81 | — | +1.76 | — | -4.37 | -2.43 | -0.04 |
| 1991 | #177 | David Jones | OFF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2000 | #203 | Damen Wheeler | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1995 | #104 | Aaron Hayden | OFF | -0.12 | +0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1985 | #122 | Raphel Cherry | DEF | -0.17 | -0.03 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1995 | #162 | 'Omar Ellison | OFF | -0.07 | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1994 | #43 | Isaac Davis | OFF | +0.28 | -0.19 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| 1994 | #137 | Aaron Laing | OFF | -0.36 | -0.10 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1992 | #174 | Deems May | OFF | +0.36 | -0.01 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 1985 | #185 | Lionel Vital | OFF | -0.36 | +0.09 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1981 | #148 | Larry Kubin | DEF | +0.25 | -0.27 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1991 | #36 | George Thornton | DEF | -0.02 | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1999 | #178 | Tyrone Bell | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1990 | #193 | Keith Collins | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2000 | #184 | Shannon Taylor | DEF | -0.15 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1980 | #187 | Melvin Jones | OFF | -0.25 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1986 | #113 | Ravin Caldwell | DEF | +0.66 | -0.43 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.14 |
| 1995 | #183 | Brandon Harrison | OFF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1996 | #192 | Bryan Stoltenberg | OFF | -0.10 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1988 | #193 | Harold Hicks | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1996 | #155 | Junior Soli | DEF | -0.38 | -0.02 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1990 | #163 | Derrick Walker | OFF | -0.04 | +0.51 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.19 |
| 1998 | #155 | Clifford Ivory | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1994 | #150 | Darren Krein | DEF | -0.39 | -0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.21 |
| 1996 | #81 | Brian Roche | OFF | -0.20 | -0.30 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1986 | #186 | Rick Badanjek | OFF | -0.28 | +0.02 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1984 | #55 | Steve Hamilton | DEF | +0.33 | -0.40 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1985 | #163 | Danzell Lee | OFF | -0.51 | -0.14 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1994 | #207 | Zane Beehn | DEF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1998 | #194 | Jon Haskins | DEF | -0.34 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1999 | #60 | Jermaine Fazande | OFF | -0.20 | -0.03 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| 2000 | #222 | Jason Thomas | OFF | -0.27 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 1998 | #126 | Cedric Harden | DEF | -0.32 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 1982 | #133 | Mike Williams | OFF | -0.29 | -0.23 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1989 | #139 | Lybrant Robinson | DEF | -0.33 | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1984 | #195 | Mark Smith | OFF | -0.40 | -0.04 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1990 | #145 | David Pool | DEF | -0.44 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1996 | #190 | Jim Mills | OFF | -0.28 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1997 | #74 | Michael Hamilton | DEF | +0.11 | -0.31 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1995 | #93 | Don Sasa | DEF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1993 | #134 | Walter Dunson | OFF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1997 | #178 | Daniel Palmer | OFF | -0.35 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1991 | #192 | Terry Beauford | OFF | -0.35 | -0.17 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1990 | #67 | Walter Wilson | OFF | -0.38 | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1989 | #129 | Tim Smiley | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1989 | #179 | Kevin Hendrix | DEF | -0.46 | -0.10 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1996 | #50 | Patrick Sapp | DEF | -0.02 | -0.25 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.39 |
| 1984 | #83 | Jay Schroeder | OFF | -0.76 | -0.41 | — | -0.20 | — | +0.79 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| 1988 | #127 | Carl Mims | DEF | -0.51 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1992 | #117 | Curtis Whitley | OFF | +0.03 | -0.45 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 1999 | #141 | Reggie Nelson | OFF | -0.38 | -0.26 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1991 | #150 | Jimmy Laister | OFF | -0.43 | -0.25 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1989 | #110 | Erik Affholter | OFF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1992 | #131 | Kevin Little | DEF | -0.54 | -0.18 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1982 | #180 | John Schachtner | DEF | -0.56 | -0.19 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1986 | #156 | Jim Huddleston | OFF | -0.47 | -0.28 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1995 | #34 | Terrance Shaw | DEF | -0.17 | +0.37 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.39 | -0.29 | -0.58 |
| 1994 | #160 | Tony Vinson | OFF | -0.60 | -0.15 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1983 | #166 | Bob Winckler | OFF | -0.50 | -0.31 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1982 | #153 | Lamont Jeffers | DEF | -0.62 | -0.24 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1995 | #100 | Chris Cowart | DEF | -0.61 | -0.26 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 1995 | #98 | Preston Harrison | DEF | -0.62 | -0.27 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1984 | #102 | Jimmy Smith | OFF | -0.62 | -0.21 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 1988 | #66 | Mike Oliphant | OFF | -0.52 | -0.31 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 1984 | #125 | Jeff Pegues | DEF | -0.65 | -0.28 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 1980 | #155 | Farley Bell | DEF | -0.65 | -0.27 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1981 | #90 | Tom Flick | OFF | -0.44 | -0.34 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1991 | #9 | Stanley Richard | DEF | -0.14 | +0.14 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.34 | -0.25 | -0.79 |
| 1995 | #61 | Jimmy Oliver | OFF | -0.65 | -0.34 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 1981 | #132 | Gary Sayre | OFF | -0.61 | -0.41 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| 1990 | #57 | Jeff Mills | DEF | -0.67 | -0.48 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.03 |
| 1982 | #61 | Carl Powell | OFF | -0.79 | -0.46 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.10 |
| 1990 | #60 | Leo Goeas | OFF | -0.35 | -0.61 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -1.11 |
| 1990 | #185 | Joe Staysniak | OFF | -0.77 | -0.54 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.11 |
| 1983 | #168 | Babe Laufenberg | OFF | -0.76 | -0.46 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.14 |
| 1983 | #56 | Richard Williams | OFF | -0.83 | -0.43 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.14 |
| 1990 | #138 | John Friesz | OFF | -0.70 | -0.40 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.13 | -0.03 | -1.14 |
| 1986 | #45 | Walter Murray | OFF | -0.80 | -0.51 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.15 |
| 1992 | #63 | Ray Ethridge | OFF | -0.85 | -0.52 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.19 |
| 2000 | #83 | Damion McIntosh | OFF | -0.65 | -0.34 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.23 | -0.16 | -1.19 |
| 1987 | #48 | Wally Kleine | OFF | -0.79 | -0.67 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.29 |
| 1981 | #20 | Mark May | OFF | +0.17 | +0.59 | — | +0.36 | — | -2.24 | -1.89 | -1.33 |
| 1985 | #33 | Tory Nixon | DEF | -0.90 | -0.64 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.35 |
| 1984 | #31 | Bob Slater | DEF | -0.91 | -0.65 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.39 |
| 1987 | #192 | Johnny Thomas | DEF | -0.07 | -0.95 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.09 | -0.08 | -1.39 |
| 1987 | #30 | Brian Davis | DEF | -0.57 | -0.77 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.23 | -0.14 | -1.54 |
| 1988 | #159 | Stan Humphries | OFF | -0.93 | -0.66 | — | -0.82 | — | -0.08 | -0.02 | -1.67 |
| 1998 | #2 | Ryan Leaf | OFF | -0.16 | -0.53 | — | -1.31 | — | -0.07 | -0.02 | -1.70 |
| 1984 | #167 | Curt Singer | OFF | -1.09 | -0.82 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.74 |
| 1991 | #39 | Eric Bieniemy | OFF | -0.13 | -1.19 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.40 | -0.22 | -1.88 |
| 1990 | #172 | Jeff Novak | OFF | -1.22 | -0.94 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -2.00 |
| 1993 | #22 | Darrien Gordon | DEF | -0.77 | -0.83 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.52 | -0.38 | -2.15 |
| 1999 | #69 | Steve Heiden | OFF | -0.94 | -1.13 | — | -1.22 | — | -0.41 | -0.22 | -2.56 |
| 1991 | #90 | Yancey Thigpen | OFF | -1.52 | -1.12 | — | -1.15 | — | -0.23 | -0.13 | -2.65 |
| 1992 | #33 | Marquez Pope | DEF | -1.31 | -1.48 | — | -1.33 | — | -0.42 | -0.30 | -3.08 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.