Eddie LeBaron
ATL · Composite skill θ = -0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.10 to +0.52
Evidence: 22 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1980–1982 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.07
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1982ATLGM; promoted to Executive VP 1982; pre-Braatz era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #36 | Buddy Curry | DEF | +1.95 |
| 1980 | #137 | Kenny Johnson | DEF | +1.12 |
| 1981 | #109 | John Scully | OFF | +0.93 |
| 1980 | #7 | Junior Miller | OFF | +0.66 |
| 1982 | #9 | Gerald Riggs | OFF | +0.31 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #136 | Eric Sanders | OFF | -2.39 |
| 1981 | #80 | Scott Woerner | DEF | -1.49 |
| 1982 | #36 | Doug Rogers | DEF | -1.19 |
| 1980 | #91 | Jim Laughlin | DEF | -1.11 |
| 1982 | #95 | Reggie Brown | OFF | -1.07 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 22 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1980 | #36 | Buddy Curry | DEF | +0.98 | +1.66 | — | +0.94 | — | -0.41 | -0.21 | +1.95 |
| 1980 | #137 | Kenny Johnson | DEF | +0.40 | +1.00 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.24 | -0.16 | +1.12 |
| 1981 | #109 | John Scully | OFF | +0.99 | +0.87 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.34 | -0.18 | +0.93 |
| 1980 | #7 | Junior Miller | OFF | +0.12 | +0.03 | — | -0.39 | — | +2.00 | -0.07 | +0.66 |
| 1982 | #9 | Gerald Riggs | OFF | +0.01 | -0.11 | — | +0.25 | — | +1.28 | -1.06 | +0.31 |
| 1981 | #25 | Bobby Butler | DEF | +1.57 | +1.36 | — | +0.36 | — | -1.88 | -1.20 | +0.29 |
| 1982 | #63 | Stacey Bailey | OFF | +0.60 | +0.43 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.36 | -0.16 | +0.23 |
| 1980 | #63 | Earl Jones | DEF | +0.54 | -0.50 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| 1982 | #176 | David Toloumu | OFF | -0.51 | -0.06 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1981 | #164 | Harry Stanback | DEF | -0.52 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1980 | #172 | Mike Smith | OFF | -0.40 | -0.15 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1982 | #149 | Mike Kelley | OFF | -0.41 | -0.15 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.47 |
| 1980 | #146 | Mike Davis | DEF | -0.59 | -0.22 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1980 | #104 | I.M. Hipp | OFF | -0.72 | -0.27 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1980 | #117 | Brad Vassar | DEF | -0.75 | -0.36 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1982 | #122 | Von Mansfield | DEF | -0.81 | -0.41 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 1981 | #54 | Lyman White | DEF | -0.50 | -0.58 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.05 |
| 1982 | #95 | Reggie Brown | OFF | -0.66 | -0.43 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.07 |
| 1980 | #91 | Jim Laughlin | DEF | -0.36 | -0.54 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -1.11 |
| 1982 | #36 | Doug Rogers | DEF | -0.65 | -0.63 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.19 |
| 1981 | #80 | Scott Woerner | DEF | -0.77 | -0.75 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.49 |
| 1981 | #136 | Eric Sanders | OFF | -0.29 | -1.24 | — | -1.21 | — | -0.53 | -0.32 | -2.39 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.