Bob Ferguson
ARI · Composite skill θ = -0.26 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.00 to +0.48
Evidence: 64 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 1996–2002 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.19
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1996–2002ARIDirector of Player Personnel; pre-formal-GM era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #64 | Adrian Wilson | DEF | +7.89 |
| 1998 | #226 | Pat Tillman | DEF | +1.96 |
| 1997 | #42 | Jake Plummer | OFF | +1.50 |
| 1999 | #8 | David Boston | OFF | +1.41 |
| 1998 | #125 | Terry Hardy | OFF | +1.35 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #7 | Thomas Jones | OFF | -5.91 |
| 2002 | #81 | Josh McCown | OFF | -5.65 |
| 2001 | #2 | Leonard Davis | OFF | -4.07 |
| 2001 | #34 | Kyle Vanden Bosch | DEF | -3.38 |
| 1996 | #3 | Simeon Rice | DEF | -2.53 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 64 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #64 | Adrian Wilson | DEF | +2.22 | +2.80 | — | +2.05 | — | +4.95 | +1.71 | +7.89 |
| 1998 | #226 | Pat Tillman | DEF | +1.20 | +1.15 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.96 |
| 1997 | #42 | Jake Plummer | OFF | +0.57 | +1.06 | — | +0.84 | — | -0.24 | -0.05 | +1.50 |
| 1999 | #8 | David Boston | OFF | -0.02 | -0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | +0.85 | +2.01 | +1.41 |
| 1998 | #125 | Terry Hardy | OFF | +0.68 | +0.87 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.35 |
| 2000 | #41 | Raynoch Thompson | DEF | +0.71 | +0.92 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.20 |
| 1997 | #212 | Mark Smith | DEF | +0.65 | +0.57 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.07 |
| 1996 | #137 | James Dexter | OFF | +0.53 | +0.59 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.01 |
| 1997 | #106 | Chris Dishman | OFF | +1.08 | +0.61 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.99 |
| 1999 | #190 | Coby Rhinehart | DEF | +1.16 | +0.13 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.97 |
| 1999 | #116 | Joel Makovicka | OFF | +0.90 | +0.89 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.90 |
| 1998 | #158 | Zack Walz | DEF | +0.65 | +0.33 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.74 |
| 1996 | #112 | Aaron Graham | OFF | +0.60 | +0.42 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.71 |
| 1996 | #64 | Johnny McWilliams | OFF | +0.73 | +0.34 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 1999 | #206 | Dennis McKinley | OFF | +1.10 | +0.14 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 2001 | #98 | Bill Gramatica | ST | +0.25 | +0.12 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 1997 | #188 | Tony McCombs | DEF | +0.23 | +0.30 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.48 |
| 1999 | #239 | Chris Greisen | OFF | +0.21 | +0.28 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.48 |
| 2000 | #176 | Jabari Issa | DEF | +0.22 | +0.15 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 1999 | #83 | Tom Burke | DEF | +0.30 | +0.10 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2000 | #136 | Mao Tosi | DEF | +0.21 | +0.24 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 |
| 2001 | #123 | Marcus Bell | DEF | +0.36 | +0.11 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 1996 | #212 | Jarius Hayes | OFF | +0.16 | +0.01 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 |
| 2002 | #223 | Mike Banks | OFF | +0.11 | +0.01 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 2000 | #215 | Sekou Sanyika | DEF | +0.42 | +0.01 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2002 | #98 | Dennis Johnson | DEF | +0.14 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2001 | #246 | Tevita Ofahengaue | OFF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2002 | #149 | Jason McAddley | OFF | -0.14 | +0.17 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2000 | #164 | Jay Tant | OFF | -0.30 | -0.07 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1998 | #209 | Jomo Cousins | DEF | -0.27 | +0.07 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1998 | #233 | Ron Janes | OFF | -0.26 | +0.15 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 1999 | #168 | Yusuf Scott | OFF | +0.21 | -0.20 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | #185 | Josh Scobey | OFF | +0.10 | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1998 | #193 | Phil Savoy | OFF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2000 | #102 | David Barrett | DEF | +0.15 | +0.16 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.11 |
| 1997 | #84 | Ty Howard | DEF | +0.00 | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1996 | #169 | Mike Foley | DEF | -0.35 | +0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1996 | #162 | Dell McGee | DEF | -0.30 | -0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2001 | #133 | Mario Fatafehi | DEF | -0.27 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1997 | #175 | Rod Brown | OFF | -0.36 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1999 | #155 | Paris Johnson | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2001 | #166 | Bobby Newcombe | OFF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1999 | #202 | Melvin Bradley | DEF | -0.35 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2001 | #202 | Renaldo Hill | DEF | -0.02 | -0.01 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.29 |
| 1997 | #139 | Chad Carpenter | OFF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2002 | #49 | Levar Fisher | DEF | -0.26 | -0.11 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 2002 | #113 | Nate Dwyer | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1996 | #161 | Harry Stamps | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1996 | #32 | Leeland McElroy | OFF | -0.10 | -0.13 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.46 |
| 1997 | #9 | Tom Knight | DEF | +0.14 | +0.15 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.19 | -0.14 | -0.48 |
| 1999 | #51 | Johnny Rutledge | DEF | +0.18 | -0.42 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 1998 | #36 | Anthony Clement | OFF | +0.15 | +0.27 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.45 | -0.28 | -0.50 |
| 2001 | #54 | Michael Stone | DEF | +0.00 | -0.59 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.71 |
| 1999 | #21 | L.J. Shelton | OFF | +0.05 | +0.31 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.62 | -0.40 | -0.73 |
| 1998 | #3 | Andre Wadsworth | DEF | -0.13 | -0.33 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.05 |
| 2002 | #12 | Wendell Bryant | DEF | -0.26 | -0.63 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.13 |
| 1998 | #95 | Michael Pittman | OFF | -0.48 | -0.49 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.37 | -0.25 | -1.27 |
| 2000 | #71 | Darwin Walker | DEF | -1.42 | -1.02 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -2.25 |
| 1998 | #33 | Corey Chavous | DEF | -0.60 | -1.03 | — | -1.15 | — | -0.58 | -0.46 | -2.48 |
| 1996 | #3 | Simeon Rice | DEF | -0.60 | -0.47 | — | -1.19 | — | -0.50 | -1.12 | -2.53 |
| 2001 | #34 | Kyle Vanden Bosch | DEF | -1.45 | -1.32 | — | -1.44 | — | -0.71 | -0.39 | -3.38 |
| 2001 | #2 | Leonard Davis | OFF | -0.32 | -0.22 | — | -1.28 | — | -2.56 | -2.48 | -4.07 |
| 2002 | #81 | Josh McCown | OFF | -2.52 | -2.17 | — | -2.62 | — | -1.05 | -0.31 | -5.65 |
| 2000 | #7 | Thomas Jones | OFF | -1.59 | -1.89 | — | -1.98 | — | -2.49 | -1.89 | -5.91 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.