[
  {
    "run_id": "2026-07-30-v30-validation",
    "analysis_date": "2026-07-30",
    "model_route": "v30_brms_cmdstanr",
    "public_interval_label": "maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval",
    "analysis_type": "temporal_stability_screen_not_truth_calibration",
    "trajectory_compatibility": "limited_support_route",
    "trajectory_target": "later_raw_support_route_estimate_not_truth",
    "headline_gm_team_career_rows": 209,
    "unique_gms": 190,
    "trajectory_snapshot_year_min": 1981,
    "trajectory_snapshot_year_max": 2025,
    "temporal_horizon_years": 5,
    "temporal_pair_count": 3759,
    "temporal_unique_gms": 170,
    "raw_later_point_inside_earlier_interval_rate": 0.9902,
    "public_later_point_inside_earlier_interval_rate": 1,
    "raw_mean_absolute_change_to_later_raw": 0.1608,
    "public_mean_absolute_change_to_later_raw": 0.1745,
    "baseline_reconstruction_max_abs_public_mean_error": 5.5511e-17,
    "baseline_reconstruction_max_abs_public_sd_error": 1.1102e-16,
    "baseline_reconstruction_max_abs_interval_error": 4.4409e-16,
    "maturity_sensitivity_scenario_count": 36,
    "maturity_sensitivity_point_ranking_transform_count": 12,
    "maturity_sensitivity_min_spearman": 0.9981,
    "maturity_sensitivity_min_top_20_overlap_rate": 0.9474,
    "maturity_sensitivity_min_bottom_20_overlap_rate": 0.9474,
    "maturity_sensitivity_max_absolute_rank_shift": 15,
    "maturity_sensitivity_interval_width_min": 1.8427,
    "maturity_sensitivity_interval_width_max": 3.5962,
    "final_trajectory_vs_headline_raw_spearman": 0.9957,
    "final_trajectory_vs_headline_mean_absolute_difference": 0.0369
  }
]