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"n_observed": 10829 }, "yap": { "outcome_column": "y_ap", "subset_column": null, "n_fit_rows": 10829, "n_observed": 10829 }, "ysnaps": { "outcome_column": "y_snaps", "subset_column": "snaps_observed", "n_fit_rows": 10829, "n_observed": 3986 }, "yav": { "outcome_column": "y_av", "subset_column": null, "n_fit_rows": 10829, "n_observed": 10829 }, "yavrate": { "outcome_column": "y_av_rate", "subset_column": "av_rate_observed", "n_fit_rows": 10829, "n_observed": 2703 } }, "response_summary": { "ygp": { "family": "gaussian", "outcome_column": "y_gp", "subset_column": null, "n_observed": 10829, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 42, "outcome_flags": 7, "subgroup_flags": 29 }, "ycgs": { "family": "gaussian", "outcome_column": "y_cgs", "subset_column": null, "n_observed": 10829, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 42, "outcome_flags": 7, "subgroup_flags": 33 }, "ypb": { "family": "poisson", "outcome_column": "y_pb", "subset_column": null, "n_observed": 10829, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 42, "outcome_flags": 3, "subgroup_flags": 21 }, "yap": { "family": "poisson", "outcome_column": "y_ap", "subset_column": null, "n_observed": 10829, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 42, "outcome_flags": 2, "subgroup_flags": 14 }, "ysnaps": { "family": "gaussian", "outcome_column": "y_snaps", "subset_column": "snaps_observed", "n_observed": 3986, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 40, "outcome_flags": 3, "subgroup_flags": 1 }, "yav": { "family": "gaussian", "outcome_column": "y_av", "subset_column": null, "n_observed": 10829, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 42, "outcome_flags": 6, "subgroup_flags": 28 }, "yavrate": { "family": "gaussian", "outcome_column": "y_av_rate", "subset_column": "av_rate_observed", "n_observed": 2703, "outcome_metrics_checked": 8, "subgroup_cells_checked": 40, "outcome_flags": 4, "subgroup_flags": 0 } }, "flags": { "low_draw_budget": false, "draw_budget_truncated": false, "observed_cells_outside_replicated_95": 158, "outcome_cells_outside_replicated_95": 32, "subgroup_cells_outside_replicated_95": 126, "total_summary_cells": 346, "observed_flag_rate": 0.4566, "nominal_tail_rate_per_cell": 0.05, "multiple_comparisons_note": "Flags are per-cell diagnostics, not a family-wise pass/fail test; some flags are expected when many correlated summaries are screened.", "review_required": true }, "artifact_references": { "outcome_summary": "data/model_checks/2026-07-30-v30-validation/posterior-predictive-outcome-summary.csv", "subgroup_summary": "data/model_checks/2026-07-30-v30-validation/posterior-predictive-subgroup-summary.csv", "flags": "data/model_checks/2026-07-30-v30-validation/posterior-predictive-flags.csv", "outcome_figure": "docs/figures/model_checks/2026-07-30-v30-validation/posterior-predictive-outcomes.png", "subgroup_figure": "docs/figures/model_checks/2026-07-30-v30-validation/posterior-predictive-subgroups.png" }, "compatibility_notes": ["Compatible only with the reviewed active v30 seven-response brms/cmdstanr deep fit.", "Subsetted responses are mapped from the serialized fit$data rows used by brms.", "This is a raw-likelihood posterior predictive check, not a maturity-layer validation.", "R/04b_posterior_predictive_checks.R remains the experimental latent-route comparison.", "No leaderboard, public release status, or public interval is regenerated by this script."] } ]